市场化进程对房地产投资空间格局的影响分析

发布时间：2018-04-10 12:07

本文选题：房地产投资 + 空间计量分析　；参考：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,市场化进程加快,促进了经济增长,从而带动房地产业的发展,目前我国房地产业已经成为经济发展的支柱行业,与国民经济的发展有着密切联系。近年来,虽然房地产行业发展速度加快,但是发展极不均衡,各地区房地产投资存在显著差异。究其原因,市场环境时刻影响着社会经济大发展,同时也影响了房地产业的发展。因此,合理分析我国房地产投资的市场环境,重点分析市场化进程的影响,有利于政府对房地产市场调控,对于保持房地产市场健康、稳定发展具有深远意义。基于上述分析,本文侧重以市场环境为背景,以我国房地产投资为研究对象,在总结已有理论与研究成果的基础上,以宏观层面上的分析为主,侧重空间布局分析,即分析各省、自治区、直辖市的市场化进程对房地产投资的影响。通过运用1999-2015年我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)房地产投资数据和市场化指数,试图加入空间因素,分析市场化进程对房地产投资格局的影响。本文首先分析了房地产投资和市场化进程二者之间的相关关系,其次分别进行空间自相关检验,最后运用空间面板模型将市场化指数作为主要控制变量,并选取其他控制变量对我国全国范围内及东、中、西部地区房地产投资布局进行分析。本文的主要内容和结论如下:1、通过对我国房地产投资及市场化进程的现状分析发现二者均存在区域差异性,理论分析表明,市场化进程影响了房地产业的发展。房地产投资作为房地产业的一个重要组成部分,通过回归分析发现,市场化程度影响了房地产投资格局的形成。2、通过对我国1999-2014年房地产投资额及市场化程度空间相关性检验发现:一方面,1999-2003年房地产投资不存在空间相关性,自2004年起我国房地产投资开始呈现出显著的空间作用,房地产投资较高的区域,容易受到周边地区房地产投资的影响;房地产市场发展程度与经济发展水平低的区域房地产投资最容易受到市场需求的影响。另一方面,2010年以来各地区市场化程度也逐渐开始存在空间相关性。3、分析了我国各地区市场化进程对房地产投资影响的差异性。本文按照统计口径的不同划分时间段,为了深入剖析房地产投资的差异性特征,采用空间面板数据模型深入分析全国地区、东、中、西部地区市场化对房地产投资格局的影响,结果发现各地区影响程度存在显著差异,西部地区房地产投资受市场化影响较大,东中部地区影响效果不明显。该研究结论有助于更加清晰地认识我国房地产投资市场,了解其发展状况及差异性特征,明确不同影响因素对房地产投资的影响程度,为保障我国房地产市场的有序进行,为制定差别化的房地产调控政策,为保障不同城市房地产投资协调发展提供参考。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the marketization process has accelerated, promoted the economic growth, thus promoted the development of the real estate industry. At present, the real estate industry of our country has become the pillar industry of the economic development, and has close relation with the development of the national economy.In recent years, although the speed of development of real estate industry is accelerating, the development of real estate industry is extremely uneven, and there are significant differences in real estate investment in different regions.The reason is that the market environment affects the development of social economy and real estate industry.Therefore, the reasonable analysis of the market environment of real estate investment in China and the analysis of the influence of the market-oriented process are beneficial to the government's regulation and control of the real estate market, and are of far-reaching significance to the maintenance of the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.Based on the above analysis, this paper focuses on the background of the market environment, taking real estate investment as the research object, on the basis of summarizing the existing theories and research results, focusing on the macro-level analysis, focusing on the spatial layout analysis.Namely analyze the influence of the marketization process of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government on real estate investment.By using the real estate investment data and marketization index of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) from 1999 to 2015, this paper attempts to add spatial factors to analyze the influence of marketization process on the real estate investment pattern.This paper first analyzes the relationship between real estate investment and market-oriented process, then carries out spatial autocorrelation test, finally uses the spatial panel model to take the market-oriented index as the main control variable.And select other control variables to analyze the real estate investment layout in the whole country and in the east, middle and west regions.The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. By analyzing the current situation of real estate investment and marketization in China, we find that there are regional differences between them. The theoretical analysis shows that the marketization process affects the development of real estate industry.Real estate investment as an important part of the real estate industry, through regression analysis found,The degree of marketization affects the formation of real estate investment pattern. Through the spatial correlation test of real estate investment and marketization degree in China from 1999 to 2014, it is found that there is no spatial correlation between real estate investment and real estate investment from 1999 to 2003.Since 2004, the real estate investment in our country has been playing a significant role in space. The regions with higher real estate investment are vulnerable to the influence of the real estate investment in the surrounding areas.Regional real estate investment with low level of real estate market development and economic development is most vulnerable to market demand.On the other hand, since 2010, the degree of regional marketization has gradually begun to exist spatial correlation. 3. This paper analyzes the differences of the impact of the process of regional marketization on real estate investment in China.In this paper, in order to analyze the characteristics of the difference of real estate investment, the paper analyzes the influence of marketization on the pattern of real estate investment in the whole country, east, middle and west by using the spatial panel data model according to the different time periods of statistical caliber.The results show that there are significant differences in the degree of influence between different regions. The real estate investment in the western region is greatly affected by the marketization, but the effect in the eastern and central regions is not obvious.The conclusion of this study is helpful to understand the real estate investment market of our country more clearly, to understand its development condition and the difference characteristic, to make clear the influence degree of the different influence factors on the real estate investment, in order to ensure the orderly development of the real estate market in our country.In order to make differential real estate regulation and control policy, to ensure the coordinated development of real estate investment in different cities to provide a reference.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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