我国房地产信贷增量及其结构变化对房价的影响

发布时间：2018-04-12 06:58

本文选题：房地产信贷规模 + 个人住房贷款　；参考：《华东师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：2003年,房地产业成为我国国民经济的支柱产业。在接下来的10年间,房地产市场蓬勃发展,成为推动国家宏观经济发展的中坚力量。引导和促进房地产业持续稳定健康发展,有利于保持国民经济的平稳快速增长,有利于满足广大群众的基本住房消费需求。房地产业属于资金密集型产业,但不同于其他产业,具有建设周期长、资金需求量大、产品价值高的特点。由于我国房地产金融市场不够发达,房地产市场的融资渠道比较单一,其资金主要来源于银行贷款。因此,我国房地产市场与信贷市场密切联系,两者互相支持互相影响。房地产信贷包括房地产开发贷款和个人住房贷款两部分,分别满足房地产市场供给方和需求方的资金需求。房地产开发贷款的投放促进了房地产市场供给的增长,而个人住房贷款的投放促进了房地产市场需求的增长。商业银行对供需双方的信贷支持力度不同,将会影响房地产市场的供给和需求,进而影响房地产价格。本文在已有研究成果的基础上,提出从增量层面,研究房地产信贷与房价的互动关系。首先针对房地产信贷与房价的相互影响机制进行理论分析,得出两者相互促进并同时受到外部因素的影响。受篇幅限制,本文侧重研究房地产信贷对房价的影响。其次,在对现状描述的基础上,对房地产信贷规模与房价进行定性分析,并进一步分析房地产开发贷款和个人住房贷款对房价的影响。再次,运用格兰杰因果关系检验方法,对房地产信贷规模增速和房价增速进行了因果关系检验,实证结果表明,两者互为格兰杰因果关系,房地产信贷规模增速提高会推动房价增速上涨,反过来亦成立。在以上实证研究的基础上,本文使用VAR状模型进一步研究个人住房贷款增速和房地产开发贷款增速对房价增速的影响,实证结果显示,短期内房地产开发贷款增速提高会使房价增速上涨,但是从长期来看,会使房价增速放缓；而个人住房贷款增速对房价增速起到正向推动作用。最后,结合理论和实证分析,针对控制房价增速过快上涨,提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:In 2003, the real estate industry became the pillar industry of our national economy.Over the next 10 years, the real estate market flourished and became the backbone of the country's macroeconomic development.Guiding and promoting the sustained, stable and healthy development of the real estate industry is conducive to maintaining the steady and rapid growth of the national economy and meeting the basic housing consumption needs of the broad masses of people.The real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry, but different from other industries, it has the characteristics of long construction period, large capital demand and high product value.Because of the undeveloped real estate financial market in our country, the financing channel of real estate market is relatively single, and its funds mainly come from bank loans.Therefore, China's real estate market and credit markets are closely linked, the two support each other.Real estate credit includes two parts: real estate development loan and personal housing loan, which meet the demand and supply side of the real estate market.The real estate development loan has promoted the real estate market supply growth, while the individual housing loan investment has promoted the real estate market demand growth.Different credit support from commercial banks will affect the supply and demand of the real estate market and then affect the real estate prices.Based on the existing research results, this paper proposes to study the interactive relationship between real estate credit and house prices from the incremental level.Firstly, the mutual influence mechanism of real estate credit and house price is analyzed theoretically, and it is concluded that both of them promote each other and are influenced by external factors at the same time.Limited by space, this paper focuses on the impact of real estate credit on housing prices.Secondly, on the basis of the description of the present situation, this paper makes a qualitative analysis on the scale of real estate credit and housing prices, and further analyzes the impact of real estate development loans and personal housing loans on housing prices.Thirdly, using the Granger causality test method, the paper tests the real estate credit scale growth rate and the housing price growth rate. The empirical results show that the two are Granger causality.The increase in the size of real estate credit will drive house prices up and vice versa.On the basis of the above empirical research, this paper uses the VAR model to further study the impact of personal housing loan growth rate and real estate development loan growth rate on the housing price growth rate, the empirical results show that,Higher lending growth in the short term will increase house prices, but in the long run it will slow them down; personal housing loans will have a positive effect on home prices.Finally, combined with theoretical and empirical analysis, to control the rapid increase in house prices, put forward relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.45

【参考文献】