国内信贷、跨境热钱与住房价格变动——基于全国住房价格指数和一线城市房价的实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-14 15:19

本文选题：房地产市场 + 住房价格　；参考：《南方金融》2016年06期

【摘要】：本文在梳理、总结开放经济条件下住房价格变动机理的基础上,综合考虑住房供求、经济增长、股市收益率、房市调控政策、房价预期等因素,分别运用格兰杰因果检验和面板回归模型,实证检验2005年7月至2015年12月国内信贷和跨境热钱对以70个大中城市新建住宅价格指数为代表的全国住房价格和北京、上海、广州、深圳四个一线城市住房价格的影响。实证结果表明:国内信贷和跨境热钱对全国房价的影响并不显著,但对一线城市房价变动则有显著影响;国内信贷对下一期房价具有正向影响,而跨境热钱净流入对下一期房价具有负向影响。因此,要强化一线城市的房地产信贷调控,防范跨境热钱对一线城市房地产市场的冲击。
[Abstract]:Based on the basis of combing, under the condition of open economy housing price mechanism, considering the housing supply and demand, economic growth, stock market returns, housing market regulation policy, price expectations and other factors, respectively, using the Grainger causality test and panel regression model, an empirical test from July 2005 to December 2015, domestic credit and cross-border hot money to 70 cities the city's new residential price index as the representative of the national housing prices and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen four first-tier cities housing prices. The empirical results show that domestic credit and cross-border hot money impact on housing prices is not significant, but it has a significant impact on the first-tier cities house price changes; domestic credit has a positive impact on prices the next period, the net inflow of cross-border hot money has a negative impact on the price of next period. Therefore, to strengthen the real estate credit regulation first-tier cities, to prevent cross-border The impact of hot money on the real estate market in the first tier cities.

【作者单位】：中国科学院大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目《新时期国际资本流动特征及我国跨境资本流动风险预警》(项目编号:71273257)、国家自然科学基金重点项目《大数据环境下金融风险传导与防范研究》(项目编号:71532013)的资助
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.4

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