政府控制会影响中国商业银行信贷行为的周期性特征吗

发布时间：2018-04-23 18:00

本文选题：经济周期 + 银行信贷行为　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年金融危机爆发后,在国际社会普遍缩紧信贷的时候,我国商业银行信贷投放规模却不断扩大,在市场化改革过程中,中国商业银行与西方国家面临着相似的外部环境和短期压力,然而却表现出截然不同的信贷特征。这一明显的异常现象引起部分国内学者的关注,与此同时,很多学者们也开始将这一异常现象的引发原因作为他们研究的重点方向。本文研究的主要目的在于,在已有的国内与国外的成熟理论和实践结果上,考虑我国的特色市场条件与实际情况,为我国商业银行信贷行为的逆周期性特征提供更加丰富的经验证据。并考虑我国特殊的政治经济环境,从不同的角度切入进行思考,深入讨论政府控制是否会影响中国商业银行逆周期性的信贷行为,为研究我国信贷逆周期性的产生原因提供其他思路和可能性。首先归纳了国内外学者关于信贷周期性特征及其形成原因的理论研究和实证研究。国外学者研究证实欧美国家社会信贷行为普遍呈现顺周期性,其原因主要为金融加速器效应、贷款双方的信息不对称、银行的“灾难短视”行为等。然而国内有学者研究证实我国的信贷行为呈逆周期性,目前国内讨论的逆周期性成因主要集中于政府股权结构,即政府的显性控制。然而政府对银行的隐性控制所产生的影响,却少有研究,这也是本文的主要切入点。实证检验方面,文章基于1998年-2014年间67家中国商业银行的年度非平衡面板数据,实证检验了我国整体商业银行信贷行为普遍呈现逆周期特征,以及政府控制确实对我国商业银行信贷行为的逆周期性产生显著影响,并进行了稳健性检验。在实证检验过程中,样本银行被分为分为国有大型银行、股份制银行以及城市商业银行三个层级,增加政府控制与宏观经济波动的交叉项,分析得出城市商业银行对地方政府的依赖较强,所以同时受地方政府控制的力度也相对较大,其逆周期性特征最为明显。国有大型银行的逆周期性次之,而股份制银行相比较而言更加注重自身利益,其信贷逆周期性在三者中最弱。最后,本论文在结合了理论研究与实证检验结果的基础上,针对中国商业银行信贷逆周期性的问题,提出了相应的政策解决建议与方案——政府应当注意逆周期监管与信贷投放逆周期的叠加效应,在制定政策时,充分考虑到我国信贷投放逆周期的特征,争取使逆周期监管与信贷行为逆周期形成协同效应。其次,政府应当提高货币政策的有效性,实行差异化的货币政策,鼓励不同类别银行积极响应中央银行的政策号召。最后,监管部门也应当实现区别监管,灵活制定监管政策,降低监管成本。
[Abstract]:After the financial crisis broke out in 2008, when the international community generally tightened the credit, the scale of the commercial bank credit in our country expanded continuously, in the course of the market-oriented reform, Chinese commercial banks and western countries face similar external environment and short-term pressure, but show different credit characteristics. This obvious abnormal phenomenon has attracted the attention of some domestic scholars, at the same time, many scholars have begun to take the cause of the abnormal phenomenon as the focus of their research. The main purpose of this paper is to consider the characteristic market conditions and actual conditions of our country on the existing mature theory and practice results both at home and abroad. It provides more empirical evidence for the countercyclical characteristics of the credit behavior of commercial banks in China. And considering the special political and economic environment of our country, from different angles, to discuss whether government control will affect the countercyclical credit behavior of Chinese commercial banks. In order to study the causes of credit reverse periodicity in China, provide other ideas and possibilities. Firstly, the theoretical and empirical studies on the characteristics of credit periodicity and its formation are summarized. Foreign scholars have confirmed that social credit behavior in Europe and the United States is generally pro-cyclical, mainly due to the financial accelerator effect, the information asymmetry between the two parties, and the bank's "disaster shortsightedness" behavior. However, some domestic scholars have confirmed that the credit behavior of our country is countercyclical, and the cause of countercyclical discussion is mainly focused on the ownership structure of the government, that is, the dominant control of the government. However, little research has been done on the influence of the government on the implicit control of banks, which is also the main breakthrough point of this paper. On the empirical test, based on the annual non-equilibrium panel data of 67 Chinese commercial banks from 1998 to 2014, the paper empirically tests that the credit behavior of the whole commercial banks in China generally presents a counter-cyclical feature. And government control does have a significant impact on the countercyclical credit behavior of commercial banks in China, and the robustness test is carried out. In the process of empirical test, the sample banks are divided into three levels: large state-owned banks, joint-stock banks and urban commercial banks. The analysis shows that the city commercial banks rely heavily on local governments, so they are controlled by local governments, and their counter-cyclical characteristics are most obvious. The countercyclical nature of the large state-owned banks is the second, while the shareholding banks pay more attention to their own interests, and their credit countercyclical is the weakest of the three. Finally, based on the combination of theoretical research and empirical results, this paper aims at the countercyclical problem of credit in Chinese commercial banks. Put forward the corresponding policy solution suggestion and plan-the government should pay attention to the superposition effect of countercyclical supervision and credit supply, when making policy, fully consider the characteristics of countercyclical credit supply in our country. Strive to make countercyclical supervision and credit behavior reverse cycle to form a synergistic effect. Secondly, the government should improve the effectiveness of monetary policy, implement differentiated monetary policy, and encourage different types of banks to respond positively to the policy call of the central bank. Finally, the regulatory authorities should also achieve differential regulation, flexible regulatory policy, and reduce regulatory costs.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.4

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