主权财富基金的驱动因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 00:08

本文选题：主权财富基金 + 驱动因素　；参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：主权财富基金在经历了逾半个世纪的蛰伏之后,跨入新世纪后逐渐成长为一种引人注目的社会经济现象。2013年底,全球最大的80家主权财富基金的资产规模增加至6.1万亿美元,成为一类非常重要的机构投资者。从历史上看,是石油大国推动了主权财富基金的崛起,但近二三十年,石油因素正逐渐让位于包括预防老龄化和应对社会产业结构转型在内的社会层面需求。此外,2008年爆发的全球金融危机催生了旨在扶持国内新兴产业和中小企业的发达国家主权财富基金。至此,主权财富基金群体内出现以东亚新兴经济体、传统发达国家和中东石油国家为主要代表的特征分化。我国同样拥有庞大的主权财富基金,如何高效利用基金资源是关系到国家建设和经济转型的大问题。本文致力于通过探讨影响主权财富基金规模变动的不同因素,为我国主权财富基金的合理发展提供有益建议。本文在梳理前人研究的基础之上,引入主权财富基金分类研究的研究方法和社会、经济两维度的分析框架,以美国经济学家罗斯托提出的“经济成长理论”为基础,从实证的角度对本文提出的若干假设进行了有效检验。本文整理了2007年至2012年六年间刻画国家社会发展水平和经济发展程度的七项指标,构建动态面板数据的广义矩估计模型。首先对样本整体进行分析,寻找影响各类基金规模变动的共性因素。之后使用SYS-GMM方法对三类主权财富基金样本进行单独分析,寻找每一类基金的个性特征,然后将三类结果进行对比,并据此为我国主权财富基金的合理发展提出有益建议。通过研究和实证检验,本文证实了如下两方面假设：(1)主权财富基金内部确实出现了特征分化,各类型主权财富基金规模所受影响呈现出不同的群体化特征；(2)社会因素,尤其是人口年龄结构和社会产业结构变迁对主权财富基金的规模有非常显著的影响。本文认为,所在国发展阶段差异是导致主权财富基金规模变动影响因素差异的主要原因。研究认为发达国家所持主权财富基金遇到的问题和解决措施为本文提供了有益的思路和借鉴。在这里文章建议中国的主权财富基金在未来的发展中应当在以下两个方面进行战略准备：(1)关注中国社会的福利化趋势,为解决我国社会转型过程中出现的人口老龄化问题加剧和产业结构调整等问题进行准备。(2)增加对国内行业的扶持力度,针对国内特定行业进行战略性扶持。本文的创新之处主要体现在如下几点：(1)构建针对主权财富基金分类研究的分析框架,将当前主权财富基金归为东亚新兴经济体、传统发达国家、中东石油国三类展开研究(2)基于社会阶段差异的角度分析基金规模变动影响因素,将刻画社会发展的指标引入分析框架。文章基于罗斯托“经济成长理论”进行分析,首次将人口年龄结构和社会产业结构两方面指标引入对于主权财富基金规模变动的分析框架。(3)引入了矩估计方法对问题进行定量分析。研究采用了处理动态面板数据的矩估计方法,将因变量滞后项加入实证模型增加研究的解释力度,且消除了可能存在的内生性对于计量结果的影响。
[Abstract]:After more than half a century of dormancy, the sovereign wealth fund grew into a remarkable social and economic phenomenon after the new century. At the end of.2013, the world's largest 80 sovereign wealth funds increased to $6 trillion and 100 billion, becoming a very important institutional investor. Historically, it was a big oil country. The rise of sovereign wealth funds has been promoted, but in the last twenty or thirty years, the oil factor is gradually allowing the social level, including the prevention of aging and the transformation of the social industrial structure. In addition, the 2008 global financial crisis has created a sovereign wealth fund, which aims to support domestic emerging industries and small and medium-sized enterprises. At this point, the sovereign wealth fund group is divided into the characteristics of the East Asian emerging economies, the traditional developed countries and the Middle East oil countries as the main representatives. Our country also has a huge sovereign wealth fund. How to effectively use the fund resources is a big problem related to the country's construction and economic transformation. The different factors of the scale change of the wealth fund provide useful suggestions for the rational development of the sovereign wealth fund in China. On the basis of combing the predecessors' research, this paper introduces the research method of the classified study of sovereign wealth funds and the social and economic two dimension analysis framework, which is based on the "economic growth theory" proposed by Rostow, an American economist. On the basis of this, some hypotheses are effectively tested from an empirical point of view. This paper collated seven indicators that depicted the level of national social development and the degree of economic development in the six years from 2007 to 2012, and constructed a generalized moment estimation model of dynamic panel data. First, the whole sample was analyzed to find the influence of various kinds of funds. Then the SYS-GMM method is used to analyze the three types of sovereign wealth fund samples separately to find the personality characteristics of each type of fund, and then compare the three types of results, and make some useful suggestions for the rational development of China's sovereign wealth fund. Through the research and empirical test, this paper confirms the following two The aspects are as follows: (1) there is a characteristic differentiation within the sovereign wealth fund, and the influence of various types of sovereign wealth funds has different demographic characteristics; (2) the social factors, especially the population age structure and the social industrial structure change, have a very significant impact on the scale of sovereign wealth funds. The difference in the development stage is the main reason that leads to the difference of the influence factors of the scale change of the sovereign wealth fund. The research holds that the problems and solutions of the sovereign wealth funds held by the developed countries provide the useful ideas and lessons for this article. Here the article suggests that China's sovereign wealth fund should be below two in the future development. Strategic preparation for the following aspects: (1) pay attention to the welfare trend of Chinese society, prepare for solving the problems of population aging and industrial structure adjustment in the process of social transformation in China. (2) increase support for domestic industry and strategic support to specific domestic industries. The main innovations of this paper are The following points are as follows: (1) to construct an analytical framework for the classification of sovereign wealth funds, and to classify the current sovereign wealth funds into the emerging economies of East Asia, the traditional developed countries, and the three types of Middle East oil countries (2) to analyze the influence factors of the change in the scale of the fund based on the differences in the social stage, which will depict the indicators of social development. Based on the analysis of rostot's "economic growth theory", the article introduces the two aspects of population age structure and social industrial structure into the analysis framework of the scale change of sovereign wealth funds for the first time. (3) the moment estimation method is introduced to quantitative analysis of the problem. In addition, we add the lagged item of the dependent variable to the empirical model to increase the explanatory power of the study, and eliminate the possible influence of the endogeneity on the measurement results.

【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51

【参考文献】