信息不对称视角的存量房市场效率研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 19:22

本文选题：信息不对称 + 存量房市场　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：存量房市场即住房二级市场，其能否有效运行不仅关系到房地产业的健康发展，也关乎国计民生。近年来，在我国城市化及住房商品化的进程中，存量房市场规模迅速扩大，但市场中严重的信息不对称致使市场机制缺乏效率的现象引发了学者的广泛关注。本文借鉴金融经济学“有效市场假说”的市场效率经典理论并根据存量房市场作为特殊的商品市场的发展特点的基础上形成了存量房市场效率理论，在分析中得出有效的存量房市场能够通过价格机制实现存量房资源的优化配置，存量房市场效率即为衡量其实现存量房优化配置的程度，即买方能否以合理价格买到合适的房屋，从而满足真正有住房需求的消费者，特别是广大中低收入阶层群体。因此，基于“有效市场假说”对我国存量房市场效率状况进行深入的定性与定量分析探讨，对于提高存量房市场效率，丰富房地产市场效率理论具有重要的现实意义和研究价值。从运行至现阶段的我国存量房市场现状来看，我国各地存量房市场发展不均衡，市场规模与与国外发达存量房市场仍有较大差距，主要原因在于存量房本身如权属、质量、价格方面的问题以及在交易过程中对于存量房信息的提供及获取、经纪机构信息的提供及获取问题均导致市场中严重的信息不对称。而买卖双方及委托方与经纪机构两种形式的信息不对称会影响市场优化存量房资源配置功能的实现，造成市场效率的损失，而诚信经纪机构的信息传递在一定程度上能够对市场效率的提升起到一定的积极作用。针对信息不对称对存量房市场效率的影响，本文以不完全信息动态博弈为基础建立了非合作框架下信息不对称和不存在信息不对称的完全信息市场买方收益模型，并在博弈的分析过程中证实了信息不对称导致存量房市场效率的损失效应。文章还通过“时间价格序列”研究的方法，以我国北京，广州等5个典型城市为例，收集各样本城市2008年1月—2013年11月的存量商品房价格指数月度数据，应用自相关检验、自回归模型对存量房市场效率水平进行了实证分析，结果显示5个城市目前均尚未具备“弱式有效”的效率水平，由此分析这五个城市的存量房市场处于非有效甚至无效的低效率水平阶段。最后以降低信息不对称、提升市场效率水平为出发点，针对现阶段市场较低的效率水平，本文建0议应进一步加快存量房市场信息共享平台建设，，加强信息披露，提高市场信息透明度；建立经纪机构的买方代理制度，同时加强市场监督和管理；改进并完善存量房价格信息统计方法，提高存量房市场价格信息调查统计的准确性和完整性。
[Abstract]:The stock housing market, the two level housing market, is not only related to the healthy development of the real estate industry, but also to the national economy and the people's livelihood. In recent years, in the process of urbanization and housing commercialization in China, the size of the stock market has expanded rapidly, but the serious information asymmetry in the market causes the lack of efficiency of the market mechanism. Based on the market efficiency classic theory of the "effective market hypothesis" of financial economics and the development characteristics of the stock market as a special commodity market, this paper forms the theory of stock market efficiency on the basis of the stock market market as a special commodity market. In the analysis, it is concluded that the effective stock housing market can realize the stock housing through the price mechanism. To optimize the allocation of resources, the efficiency of the stock market is to measure the extent of the optimal allocation of existing housing, that is, whether the buyer can buy the right house at a reasonable price to meet the real housing demand, especially the low and middle income group. In order to improve the efficiency of the stock market and enrich the theory of the efficiency of the real estate market, it is of great practical significance and value to study the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the rate.
From the current situation of the stock housing market in China, the market development of stock housing market in China is not balanced, and the market size and foreign developed stock market still have a large gap. The main reason is that the stock housing itself, such as ownership, quality, price, and the supply and acquisition of stock information in the process of trading. The information asymmetry in the market will result in the information asymmetry in the market. The two forms of information asymmetry between the buyer and the buyer and the broker and agency will affect the realization of the allocation function of the market optimization stock, and cause the loss of the market efficiency, and the information transfer of the honest broker is to a certain extent. It can play a positive role in improving market efficiency.
In view of the effect of information asymmetry on the efficiency of stock market, this paper builds a buyer's income model of complete information market with asymmetric information and information asymmetry on the basis of incomplete information dynamic game, and confirms the loss of the stock market efficiency caused by asymmetric information in the process of game analysis. Effect.
Through the method of "time price series", this paper takes 5 typical cities such as Beijing and Guangzhou in China as examples to collect monthly data of stock commodity house price index of each sample city from January 2008 to November 2013, and use autocorrelation test and autoregressive model to make an empirical analysis on the efficiency level of the stock market, and the results show that 5 At present, the city has not yet had the "weak effective" efficiency level, thus the analysis of the stock market in these five cities is in an ineffective and ineffective low efficiency level.
In the end, in order to reduce the information asymmetry and improve the market efficiency level, in view of the low efficiency level in the present market, the 0 proposal should further accelerate the construction of the information sharing platform of the stock market, strengthen the information disclosure and improve the transparency of the market information, establish the agent system of the brokerage agency, and strengthen the market supervision as well as the market supervision. Management, improve and improve the stock housing price information statistical methods, and improve the accuracy and integrity of the stock market price information survey and statistics.

【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】