我国风险投资退出时机研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 16:10

本文选题：创业板 + 风险投资　；参考：《西南财经大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：在当今社会,科技创新已经成为衡量一个国家核心竞争力的重要标志。随着国际社会科技水平的提高和科技竞争的加剧,各国都在通过科技创新不断提高自身的综合国力。李克强总理在2016年的政府工作报告中明确指出要持续推动大众创业、万众创新,促进科技进步对经济的推动作用。这无疑会推动我国科技创新事业的快速发展。风险投资作为推动国家科技创新的重要力量之一,其在促进我国中小型高新技术企业科技创新方面起着不可替代的作用。与传统的投资方式不同,风险投资企业更加注重被投资企业的科技水平和发展潜力,风险投资往往是在市场尚未注意到风险企业时就已经开始挖掘具有发展潜力的企业,因此风险投资的第一轮投资一般是在创新型企业的初创期完成的。就创新型的高新企业而言,公司的资产规模较小,而且都是向着轻资产企业的方向发展的,公司人员也都是以高新技术人才为主,内部控制结构比较单一,同时高新技术行业的更新换代的速度很快,发展方向具有不确定性,这些因素造成了高新技术行业在所有的行业中是面临风险最大的行业。高新技术企业在初创期是难以通过银行等传统的融资渠道获得资金支持的。所以风险投资与高新技术产业的结合是一种必然。虽然风险投资企业进行风险投资的目的是攫取超额的投资收益,但不可否认的是,风险投资企业的投资对处于初创期的高新技术企业起着决定生死的作用。风险投资企业拥有资金和渠道的优势,必要时能够为风险企业提供资金和业务上的支持,另外,风险投资企业在公司治理与创业咨询业务方面积累了丰富的经验,风险投资企业可以为风险企业的公司运营以及发展方向提供建议支持。所以,从某种意义上说,引入风险投资也是高新技术企业的需要。与其他的经济主体一样,风险投资企业进行风险投资的目的也是获取投资收益。风险投资企业会进行独立的理性投资,并根据自身的情况以及风险企业的发展特点与经营状况决定风险投资的投资额度以及投资的时间。与其他的投资主体不同的是,风险投资必须要承担超高的投资风险,这就决定了风险投资有其独特的运作方式。风险投资企业会在风险企业的初创期进入并伴随风险企业的成长。但是风险投资企业不会一直停留在风险企业,风险投资企业会在恰当的时间以恰当的方式退出。风险投资企业的投资收益也是通过最终退出实现的。经验表明,风险投资自进入风险企业到最终的退出,整个过程大约需要5-7年的时间才能完成。一般地,风险投资的退出方式有四种：回购、清算、协议转让和IPO。在以上的四种退出方式中,IPO是最理想的退出方式。第一,风险企业通过IPO后成为上市公司,资本市场能够对风险企业价值正确定价并真实的反映在公司的股价上。第二,IPO后投资者会对风险企业有一种预期,这种预期也会反映在风险企业的股价上。当风险投资企业出售所持有的股份时,这部分价值就转变成风险投资企业的投资收益。第三,风险企业IPO后成为公众公司,风险企业将会面对众多的投资者,风险投资企业决定股份协议转让或公开出售时可以更容易的找到交易对手,并在交易的过程中占据主动的地位,这极大的提高了风险投资企业的退出效率。最后,风险企业成为公众公司之后,公司股份的流动性大大增加,风险投资企业无论是出售还是回售给风险企业,交易成本会降低。从风险投资企业的角度来看,风险投资是一个从投入到退出再投入的不断循环的过程。风险投资的退出是承接风险投资循环的重要节点,因此风险投资能否成功退出对风险资本的循环来说起着决定性作用。风险投资的退出最关键的两个因素是风险投资的退出方式和风险投资的退出时机,其中风险投资退出时机的选择尤为重要,它影响着风险投资的最终受益。从风险企业的角度看,当风险投资退出后,风险企业很难从风险投资企业继续获得资金支持,而必须依靠自身去经营发展。理论研究表明,风险投资退出后风险企业的股价往往会剧烈下挫,这对投资者和风险企业来说都是不利的。所以准确把握风险投资退出时机对风险投资企业与风险企业都是十份重要的。本文建立在风险投资企业可以自主决定风险资本从风险企业的退出时机的假设上,对我国的风险投资退出时机进行了分析研究,并以我国的创业板市场为研究对象进行了实证分析。本文共分五个章节：第一章绪论。本部分首先介绍了我国风险投资的研究背景,并提出了风险投资退出时机的研究论题以及本文的研究意义。第二章主要介绍了风险投资和风险投资退出的含义、风险投资退出的原因和退出意义,同时简要描述了相关的理论基础,并介绍了国内外对风险投资退出时机的研究现状以及不同学者的研究结论,并就各位学者的研究特点与不足进行了简单的评述。在第三章中,本文介绍了风险投资退出的确定以及样本的选取,并在此基础上建立了本文的研究的模型。本部分引入了生存分析的理论模型,介绍了生存分析的基本原理、加速失效生存分析模型、贝叶斯生存分析的基本思想以及Cox比例危险率模型,并就各个模型的优缺点进行了简单的分析。第四章实证分析部分,此部分是本文的重点。在本部分中,本文通过实证分析确定了影响我国风险投资退出时机的因素,并就各个因素对风险投资退出时机的影响做了相应的阐述。本文的最后一部分是结论部分,总结了本文的研究结论和不足点,并指出了未来的发展方向。通过理论分析与实证研究,本文发现：(1)风险企业的长期偿债能力有利于风险企业继续持有风险企业的股份,风险企业的短期偿债能力增强,则会促进风险投资企业的退出。本文认为风险投资企业更加关注风险企业所处的发展阶段,而短期偿债能力强表明了风险企业已经发展到了一个相对较为成熟的时期,风险企业的已经不能保持在高速发展时期的发展速度,风险投资企业会选择退出。(2)风险投资企业会根据风险企业的营运能力和盈利能力选择恰当的退出时机。当风险企业的营运能力以及盈利能力提高时,风险投资企业会选择在更晚的时机转让所持有的股份。这是因为风险企业的营运能力与盈利提高时,风险企业能够通过自身的经营获取较高的经营利润,公司的股价会上涨,这能够为公司的股东带来较高的投资回报。(3)风险投资企业会关注风险资本的投资收益情况,这在二级市场上主要表现为股价的变动。当股价上涨时,风险投资企业会为了继续赚取超额的投资收益而持有风险企业的股份；反之,当股票价格下降时,风险企业会选择退出。(4)当风险企业过多的应用负债和增加财务杠杆时,风险资本会选择退出。这是因为,风险企业成为公众公司后,其融资水平有了非常大的提高,风险投资企业持有的风险企业的股份所面临的风险已经下降到一个较低的水平。这时风险投资企业更加希望风险企业降低杠杆,保证财务状况的稳定。风险投资企业这样做的原因主要有三个：第一,在风险企业筹集股权资本的过程中,风险投资企业可以与其他的股东或机构进行协商,将其持有的股份转让,实现风险资本的退出；第二,当风险企业的财务杠杆处于较低的状态时,风险企业更容易引入股权投资者,风险资本可以更容易的退出；第三,风险企业实现公开发行之后,风险投资企业可能更加注重投入资本的安全性,因此风险投资企业不希望风险企业提高财务杠杆,不愿意承担较高的财务风险。本文在研究过程中主要存在以下的不足之处：风险投资企业通过多次在二级市场进行股份的出售,到最终完成出售时其持有的股份较少,因此风险投资企业完成风险资本退出时,其信息披露也需要到季度末才能在公司的财务报告中反应出来,所以在确定风险投资完成资本退出的时点时,是对风险企业的在一段时间的数据估计的风险企业的具体股东情况与经营状况,这其中有一定的时滞的。尽管本文对风险企业的股价研究过程中是进行复权处理的,但本文尚没有考虑风险企业的股票分红对风险投资退出时机的影响。这可能是以后研究的发展方向。
[Abstract]:In today's society, scientific and technological innovation has become an important symbol to measure the core competitiveness of a country. With the improvement of the level of science and technology in the international community and the intensification of scientific and technological competition, all countries are constantly improving their comprehensive national strength through scientific and technological innovation. In the 2016 government work report, Premier Li Keqiang clearly pointed out that the public should continue to promote the public. It will undoubtedly promote the rapid development of scientific and technological innovation in China. As one of the important forces to promote national scientific and technological innovation, venture capital plays an irreplaceable role in promoting scientific and technological innovation of small and medium high-tech enterprises in China. The venture capital enterprises pay more attention to the scientific and technological level and development potential of the invested enterprises. Venture investment often begins to excavate the potential enterprises when the market has not yet paid attention to the venture enterprises. Therefore, the first round of venture investment is generally completed at the initial stage of the innovative enterprise. In terms of the new enterprise, the company's assets are small, and all are towards the direction of the light asset enterprises. The company personnel are mainly high and new technology talents, and the internal control structure is relatively simple. At the same time, the new and high technology industry has a fast speed and the development direction is uncertain. These factors have caused the high and new technology line. Industry is the most risky industry in all industries. High and new technology enterprises are difficult to obtain funds through traditional financing channels such as banks. Therefore, the combination of venture capital and high-tech industry is a necessity. However, it is undeniable that the investment of venture capital enterprises plays a decisive role in the new and high technology enterprises at the initial stage. The venture capital enterprises have the advantages of funds and channels, and can provide funds and business support for the venture enterprises when necessary. In addition, the venture investment enterprises are in the area of corporate governance and business consulting business. With rich experience, venture capital enterprises can provide advice and support for the company operation and development direction of venture enterprises. Therefore, in a sense, the introduction of venture capital is also the need of high and new technology enterprises. Like other economic entities, venture investment enterprises' goal of entering venture capital is also to obtain investment returns. The risk investment enterprise will carry on the independent rational investment, and determine the amount of investment and the time of investment according to its own situation, the development characteristics and the operation condition of the venture enterprise. Unlike other investment subjects, the venture capital must bear the super high investment risk, which determines that the venture capital has its unique characteristics. The venture capital enterprise will enter the venture enterprise and grow with the risk enterprise. But the venture capital enterprise will not stay in the risk enterprise, the venture capital enterprise will withdraw in the right way in the appropriate time. The investment benefit of the venture capital enterprise is also realized through the final withdrawal. In general, there are four ways to withdraw from venture capital: repurchase, liquidation, agreement transfer and IPO. in the above four ways of withdrawal, IPO is the ideal exit mode. First, venture enterprises are listed on the market after IPO. A company, the capital market can correctly price the value of the venture's value and truly reflect the stock price of the company. Second, after IPO, the investor will have a kind of expectation to the venture enterprise. This expectation is also reflected in the stock price of the venture enterprise. When the venture capital enterprise sells the shares held by the venture, this part of the value will be transformed into the venture capital enterprise. The investment income of the industry. Third, after the venture enterprise IPO becomes a public company, the venture enterprise will face many investors. The venture capital enterprise can find the trading opponent more easily when it decides the transfer or sale of the stock agreement, and occupy the active place in the process of the transaction, which greatly improves the withdrawal of the venture capital enterprise. In the end, after the venture enterprise becomes a public company, the liquidity of the company is greatly increased. The cost of the venture capital enterprise will be reduced, whether it is selling or selling back to the venture enterprise. From the point of view of venture capital enterprises, venture investment is a continuous cycle process from investment to return and reinvestment. It is an important node to undertake the cycle of venture capital, so the successful withdrawal of venture capital will play a decisive role in the circulation of venture capital. The two key factors for the withdrawal of venture investment are the exit mode of venture investment and the exit opportunity of venture investment, in which the choice of exit time of venture capital investment is particularly important. From the perspective of venture enterprises, it is difficult for venture enterprises to continue to obtain capital support from venture capital enterprises, but they must rely on themselves to manage and develop. It is unfavourable to the industry. Therefore, it is important for both venture capital enterprises and venture enterprises to accurately grasp the exit opportunity of venture investment. This article is based on the hypothesis that venture capital enterprises can decide the exit opportunity of venture capital from risk enterprises independently and analyze the exit opportunity of venture capital investment in China. This article is divided into five chapters: the first chapter is introduction. This part first introduces the research background of China's venture investment, and puts forward the research topic of the opportunity of venture capital investment and the significance of this paper. The second chapter mainly introduces the withdrawal of venture capital and venture capital. The meaning, the reasons for the withdrawal of venture capital and the meaning of withdrawal, and briefly describe the relevant theoretical basis, and introduce the research status of the exit opportunity of venture capital and the conclusions of different scholars' research at home and abroad, and make a brief comment on the characteristics and shortcomings of the scholars' research. In the third chapter, this paper introduces the risk investment. This part introduces the theory model of survival analysis, introduces the basic principles of survival analysis, accelerates the failure survival analysis model, the basic idea of Bayesian survival analysis, and the Cox proportional hazard rate model, and the advantages of each model. The fourth chapter is an empirical analysis. This part is the key point of this article. In this part, the factors that affect the exit time of venture capital in China are determined by empirical analysis, and the impact of each factor on the exit time of venture investment is explained. The last part of this paper is the conclusion part, The conclusions and shortcomings of this paper are summarized, and the future development direction is pointed out. Through theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper finds that: (1) the long-term solvency of risk enterprises is beneficial to risk enterprises to continue to hold shares in venture enterprises, and to enhance the short-term debt repayment ability of venture enterprises, it will promote the withdrawal of venture capital enterprises. This paper holds that venture capital enterprises pay more attention to the development stage of risk enterprises, and the short-term debt repayment ability indicates that the venture enterprise has developed to a relatively mature period. The venture enterprise can not maintain the speed of development at the high speed of development. The venture capital enterprises will choose to withdraw. (2) venture capital enterprises When the operating ability and profitability of risk enterprises are improved, venture capital enterprises will choose to transfer their shares at a more late time. This is because the venture enterprise can pass its own capacity and profitability. In order to obtain higher operating profit, the stock price of the company will rise, which can bring a higher return on the investment of the company's shareholders. (3) the venture capital enterprise will pay attention to the investment income of venture capital, which is mainly manifested in the change of the stock price in the two level market. On the contrary, when the stock price falls, the venture enterprise will choose to withdraw. (4) when the risk enterprise is too many applied liabilities and increase the financial leverage, the venture capital will choose to exit. This is because the risk enterprise becomes a public company, its financing level has been greatly improved, the venture investment enterprise The risk of the risk enterprises held by the industry has fallen to a lower level. At this time, venture capital enterprises are more willing to reduce the leverage and guarantee the stability of the financial situation. There are three main reasons for the venture capital enterprises to do so: first, venture capital enterprises in the process of raising equity capital in the venture enterprises The industry can negotiate with other shareholders or institutions to transfer the shares held by the company and realize the withdrawal of the venture capital. Second, when the financial leverage of the venture enterprise is in a low state, the venture enterprise is easier to introduce the equity investors, and the venture capital can be more easily withdrawn; and third, after the venture enterprise realizes public issue, the wind is in the wind. Risk investment enterprises may pay more attention to the security of capital investment, so venture capital enterprises do not want risk enterprises to raise financial leverage and do not want to bear higher financial risks. This paper mainly has the following shortcomings in the study process: venture investment enterprises sell shares in the two level market by many times and end up to the end. When the venture capital enterprise completes the venture capital withdrawal, the disclosure of its information also needs to be reacted to the company's financial report at the end of the quarter, so when the venture capital is determined to complete the withdrawal of the capital, it is the risk enterprise that estimates the risk enterprise for a period of time. There are some time delays in the situation of the specific shareholders and the operating conditions. Although this paper is to deal with the stock price in the venture enterprise, this paper does not consider the impact of the stock dividend on the opportunity of venture capital exit. This may be the development direction of the future research.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.48

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