基于Hedonic模型的成都市住宅定价研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 02:41

本文选题：商品住宅 + Hedonic模型　；参考：《西南石油大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：住宅价格形成依托的传统理论有成本理论、均衡理论,开发商首先根据成本理论对商品住宅进行定价,然后根据市场均衡理论逐渐形成一个市场价格。而特征价格理论则直接从消费者的角度进行定价。特征价格理论指出,消费者接受产品的价格不是因为产品本身的成本,而是由于产品的特征属性产生的特征效用被消费者接受。这种效用是价值的体现,是客观特征属性效用的反应。商品住宅价格形成的机制主要包括三个方面：全寿命周期的成本理论、市场供需均衡理论、特征价格理论,其中成本理论和均衡理论是市场上运用最为普遍的两种理论,特征价格理论使用较少。当然,住宅价格也会受到内部和外部的因素影响,包括经济方面、社会方面、住宅结构、周边环境等方面的影响,这些影响因素会随着消费者对住宅特征的接受程度而有所改变。通过研究商品住宅市场的特征价格应用,能够较为准确的体现出住宅的真实价格。论文结合前人对特征价格的研究,基于成都市的样本数据对特征价格模型进行拟合回归,计算出了特征价格模型的参数。首先,论文通过查询资料和数据,分析了目前我国房地产市场出现的问题,并引出Hedonic模型在商品住宅定价方面应用的可能性。整理了国内外关于Hedonic模型研究的现状和Hedonic模型在住宅定价方面应用的研究现状。特征价格理论从欧洲逐渐传播到其他国家,在商品住宅定价上的应用欧洲较为成熟,我国对Hedonic模型的研究主要集中住宅价格、大米价格指数、煤炭价格指数等方面。其次,Hedonic模型在住宅定价上的应用是基于一定的理论基础和假设条件的,涉及理论基础有：消费者决策理论、生产决策理论、市场均衡理论；Hedonic模型应用的假设条件包括：(1)住宅的异质性；(2)市场的隐含性；(3)市场的均衡性。Hedonic模型在几十年的发展下,逐渐形成了多种函数形式,最具有代表的有三种形式：线性形式、对数形式、半对数形式,每一种形式使用的环境不一样,估计的精确度也不一样。Hedonic模型在应用过程中,最关键的步骤是特征变量的选取和量化,特征变量的选取采用了专家评价法,将部分对商品住宅特征价格影响不大的特征属性进行剔除,并编制了特征属性的量化标准表。特征价格模型中样本选取有效性越高,最终估计的模型参数越准确,确定商品住宅价格的时候准确性也越高。此外,模型估计完成以后,需要对模型参数进行检验,检验的形式有显著性检验、方差检验以及共线性检验。最后,文章结合成都市住宅市场发展的情况,分析了成都市住宅市场的现状。随机选取了成都市三环以内的50个项目作为研究样本,统计了每个项目的特征属性,根据量化标准表,对特征属性进行量化。采用SPSS.17软件结合量化的数据对特征价格模型的三种函数形式进行拟合,估计模型的参数。并对最终拟合出来的函数形式进行显著性检验、方差检验、共线性检验,通过检验,三种模型形式的参数均满足要求。论文引用顶峰·水岸汇景项目对模型进行验证,顶峰·水岸汇景项目最近成交价格在9500元／平方米左右,而通过Hedonic模型计算出的价格：线性模型结果为9428元／平方米,对数模型结果为9897元／平方米,半对数模型结果为9548元／平方米。模型计算的特征价格与项目成交均价误差控制在5%以下,说明Hedonic模型三种函数形式均达到要求。Hedonic模型是一种准确性高、合理性强,且具有实际意义的模型。论文对Hedonic模型的研究具有实践意义并能够促使特征价格模型在我国的发展。
[Abstract]:The traditional theory of housing price formation depends on the theory of cost, the equilibrium theory, the developers first price the commodity housing according to the cost theory, and then gradually form a market price according to the market equilibrium theory, and the characteristic price theory is directly priced from the angle of the consumer. The price of the product is not due to the cost of the product itself, but the characteristic utility produced by the product's characteristic property is accepted by the consumer. This utility is the embodiment of the value and the response of the objective characteristic properties. The mechanism of the formation of commodity housing price mainly includes three aspects: the cost theory of the whole life cycle and the equilibrium theory of market supply and demand. On the basis of the theory of characteristic price, the cost theory and equilibrium theory are the two most common theories in the market, and the characteristic price theory is less used. Of course, the housing price will also be influenced by internal and external factors, including economic, social, residential, and peripheral environment. The consumer's acceptance of the housing characteristics has changed. Through the study of the characteristic price application of the commodity housing market, the real price of the house can be more accurately reflected. Based on the previous research on the characteristic price, the paper is based on the sample data of Chengdu to regress the characteristic price model, and calculates the characteristic price model. First, through inquiring the data and data, this paper analyzes the current problems of the real estate market in China, and leads to the possibility of applying the Hedonic model to the pricing of commodity housing. It collates the status of the research on the Hedonic model at home and abroad and the research status of the application of the Hedonic model in residential housing pricing. The theory is gradually spread from Europe to other countries. The price of commodity housing is more mature in Europe. The research on Hedonic model in China mainly focuses on housing price, rice price index, coal price index and so on. Secondly, the application of Hedonic model in housing pricing is based on a certain theoretical basis and hypothesis conditions. And the theoretical basis is: consumer decision-making theory, production decision-making theory, market equilibrium theory; Hedonic model application hypothesis includes: (1) residential heterogeneity; (2) the implied market; (3) the market equilibrium.Hedonic model in the development of several decades, gradually formed a variety of functional forms, the most representative of the three forms Formula: linear, logarithmic, semi logarithmic, the environment used in each form is different. The accuracy of the estimation is not the same as the.Hedonic model in the application process. The most important step is the selection and quantification of the characteristic variables. The selection of the characteristic variables adopts the expert evaluation method, which will not affect the characteristic price of the commodity housing little. The characteristic attributes are eliminated, and the quantitative standard table of characteristic attributes is compiled. The higher the sample selection is in the characteristic price model, the more accurate the model parameters are estimated, the higher the accuracy of the commodity housing price is determined. In addition, the model parameters need to be tested and the form of the test is significant after the model estimation is completed. In the end, the article analyzes the status of the housing market in Chengdu city by combining the situation of the housing market development in Chengdu, and randomly selects 50 items within the third ring of Chengdu as the research sample, statistics the characteristic attributes of each project, and quantize the characteristic attributes according to the quantitative standard table. Using SPSS.17 software and quantitative data to fit three functional forms of the characteristic price model, the parameters of the model are estimated, and the function forms of the final fitting are tested, the variance test, the collinearity test, the parameters of the three model forms meet the requirements. The thesis cites the peak, water bank view project. To verify the model, the latest price of the peak / water bank view project is about 9500 yuan per square meter, and the price calculated by the Hedonic model is 9428 yuan / square meter, the logarithmic model is 9897 yuan / square meter, and the result of the semi logarithmic model is 9548 yuan / square meter. The characteristic price and item of the model are calculated. The average price error is less than 5%, which shows that the three functions of the Hedonic model all reach the requirement that the.Hedonic model is a model with high accuracy, strong rationality and practical significance. This paper has practical significance for the study of Hedonic model and can promote the development of the characteristic price model in China.
【学位授予单位】：西南石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

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