佛山市房地产市场的非均衡研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 16:10

本文选题：房地产市场 + 非均衡理论　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：住房商品化改革实施以来，佛山房地产市场在快速发展的同时也存在一些深层次的症结，出现了房价上涨迅猛、供需结构不合理、空置率过高等问题，这说明佛山房地产市场存在比较严重的非均衡现象。房地产市场过度的非均衡会导致资源配置错位，最终影响国计民生和社会稳定。因此，应深入分析佛山房地产市场的非均衡运行机理并采取有针对性的调控措施，以减小市场的非均衡程度，促进佛山房地产市场健康、稳定的发展。本文以佛山房地产市场为研究对象，通过对房地产市场的分析，得出影响市场供求的主要因素。然后在分析对比三种非均衡计量经济模型的基础上，选取双曲线聚合模型，并结合佛山房地产市场的供求影响因素和现行统计指标，构建佛山房地产市场非均衡计量模型。接着对佛山房地产市场总量非均衡进行实证分析，通过佛山市1998年~2012年的统计数据，应用Eviews6.0软件对模型进行参数估计，通过修正后的模型，确定影响因素对市场供求的影响程度，计算市场的有效需求、有效供给和非均衡度，接着通过统计数据对市场结构非均衡进行实证分析。结果表明，，在总量非均衡方面，研究区间内市场非均衡度整体经历了由负到正的变化；在结构非均衡方面，佛山房地产市场具有产品结构性非均衡和层次结构性非均衡的特征。最后，根据实证分析的结果，结合非均衡调控理论，分别针对市场总量和结构两方面提出了宏观调控建议。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of housing commercialization reform, the Foshan real estate market has also experienced some deep problems, such as the rapid development of the real estate market, the rapid rise in housing prices, the irrational structure of supply and demand, and the high vacancy rate. This shows that Foshan real estate market exists more serious non-equilibrium phenomenon. The excessive disequilibrium of real estate market will lead to misallocation of resources, which will ultimately affect the national economy and people's livelihood and social stability. Therefore, we should deeply analyze the mechanism of non-equilibrium operation of Foshan real estate market and take targeted measures to reduce the non-equilibrium degree of the market and promote the healthy and stable development of Foshan real estate market. This article takes Foshan real estate market as the research object, through the analysis to the real estate market, obtains the main factor which affects the market supply and demand. Then, on the basis of analyzing and comparing three kinds of non-equilibrium econometric models, the hyperbolic aggregate model is selected, and combining with the influencing factors of supply and demand of Foshan real estate market and the current statistical index, the non-equilibrium econometric model of Foshan real estate market is constructed. Secondly, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the disequilibrium of Foshan real estate market. Through the statistical data of Foshan City from 1998 to 2012, this paper uses Eviews6.0 software to estimate the parameters of the model, and through the revised model, The influence degree of influencing factors on market supply and demand is determined, and the effective demand, effective supply and disequilibrium degree of market are calculated, and then the disequilibrium of market structure is analyzed empirically by statistical data. The results show that the total disequilibrium of the market has changed from negative to positive, and the structural disequilibrium of Foshan real estate market has the characteristics of product structural disequilibrium and hierarchical structural disequilibrium. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, combined with the theory of non-equilibrium regulation, this paper puts forward some macro-control suggestions on the two aspects of market aggregate and structure.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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