我国利率变动对于金融上市公司股价的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-22 22:07

本文选题：利率 + 股价　；参考：《西北大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：金融业承担着融资和投资的作用,是社会资源配置的枢纽,也是当代经济学的中心。一个国家的发展离不开金融业的发展。所以上市金融公司的发展对一个国家经济的发展有着至关重要的作用。上市金融公司的发展往往与其股票价格紧密联系。利率政策是国家宏观调控最重要的手段之一。利率高低一方面影响上市金融公司融资的成本；另一方面影响着投资者对股票的需求,这两方面一起影响着金融上市公司股票价格的波动。通过借鉴国内外成熟的西方经济学理论体系和进行实证研究的方法,本文主要分析了利率变动对金融上市公司股票价格的影响的研究。首先从理论角度出发,概述影响股价波动的因素,包括宏观经济因素、宏观经济政策因素、公司因素及其他,有的因素是可测的,有的则是不可测的,如何去发现这些潜在的因素,是非常具有挑战性的问题。研究发现,大盘走势和利率政策是影响金融上市公司股价波动的重要因素。然后从理论上分析了利率与金融上市公司股价关系的理论模型、利率变动对金融上市公司股价影响的途径以及利率变动对金融上市公司股价影响的长短期效应分析,并通过实证检验利率变动对金融上市公司股价的影响,研究表明中国利率变动对金融上市公司股价存在长期负向相关关系,在短期内会产生冲击,但利率的作用有限,并且有时滞,使市场重新回归到长期均衡的状况需要一定的时间。最后结合前文的分析,提出政策建议,实现金融市场的健康稳定发展。
[Abstract]:Finance industry plays the role of financing and investment. It is the hub of social resources allocation and the center of contemporary economics. The development of a country is inseparable from the development of the financial industry. Therefore, the development of listed financial companies plays a vital role in the development of a country's economy. The development of listed financial companies is often closely related to their stock prices. Interest rate policy is one of the most important means of national macro-control. On the one hand, the interest rate affects the financing cost of listed financial companies; on the other hand, it affects the demand of investors for stocks, which together affect the volatility of stock prices of listed financial companies. This paper mainly analyzes the influence of interest rate change on the stock price of financial listed companies by referring to the mature western economic theory system and empirical research methods at home and abroad. First of all, from a theoretical point of view, summarize the factors that affect stock price fluctuations, including macroeconomic factors, macroeconomic policy factors, corporate factors and others, some factors are measurable, some factors are unpredictable. How to identify these underlying factors is a very challenging issue. It is found that the market trend and interest rate policy are important factors influencing the stock price fluctuation of listed companies. Then it analyzes the theoretical model of the relationship between interest rate and the share price of the financial listed company, the ways of the influence of the change of interest rate on the stock price of the financial listed company and the long-term and short-term effect of the change of interest rate on the stock price of the financial listed company. Through the empirical test of the influence of interest rate change on the stock price of financial listed companies, the study shows that the change of interest rate in China has a long-term negative correlation with the share price of financial listed companies, which will impact in the short term, but the role of interest rate is limited. And with time lag, it will take time for markets to return to long-term equilibrium. Finally, based on the above analysis, policy suggestions are put forward to realize the healthy and stable development of the financial market.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F822.0

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