管理者过度自信与企业绩效相关性的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-28 20:40

本文选题：管理者过度自信 + 企业绩效　；参考：《西华大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：从20世纪50年代Modigliani提出MM理论以来,各种财务理论层出不穷,例如Berle(1932)提出了公司治理理论,Krause(1973)提出了权衡理论,Jensen(1976)提出代理成本理论,Ross(1977)信息不对称理论,Aghion(1992)的公司控制权理论。这些财务理论都认为企业的决策者是理性的,他们会依据利益最大化的原则制定政策,也能够及时获取和处理市场信息,采取最理性、最合理的措施。但是,随着国内外财务研究的深入,这些基于理性人假设的研究结论遭到了学术界越来越多的怀疑与批判。因此,国外的心理学或者经济学专家基于管理者“非理性人”的假设,尝试将新的研究范式引入财务研究中,丰富和改进了这些传统的财务理论。近年,高级管理者的“非理性”现象逐渐成为了各学科的研究热点。管理者过度自信是指管理层中有相当一部分人会以自我为中心,高估自己的知识、信息获取等能力,自信认为可以获取成功。随着管理者过度自信理论不断深入的研究,财务会计领域开始去研究管理者过度自信与企业绩效之间的相互作用和结果。目前学术界三种观点:管理者过度自信与企业绩效正相关、负相关或者不存在明显的相关性。另外,相关研究都证明了董事会治理会显著影响企业整体的运行、绩效和发展。Vance(1968)认为独立董事比例与企业绩效之间是反向关系,但内部董事所占比例与企业绩效之间是正向关系。不过,这些研究中都很少会考虑到管理层的心理状态,我们发现在实际情境中,管理层会比较容易出现过度自信的现象,甚至这种自信会对企业绩效产生严重的影响。通过对国内外学者关于管理者过度自信、企业绩效和董事会治理结构的相关文献进行回顾和分析,发现很少有学者将董事会治理作为管理者过度自信-企业绩效的“中间桥梁”,所以本研究确立以此为切入点,将董事会治理纳入因素研究之中,以期能够丰富国内关于管理者过度自信对企业绩效影响机制的学术成果。在前人的研究成果之上精选衡量指标,完整收集上市企业有效数据,并进行了数据的描述性分析、相关性分析和回归分析。通过实证研究发现:管理者过度自信与企业绩效的关系是正向的;董事会规模越大,管理者过度自信和企业绩效的正向关系越弱;独立董事比例越大,管理者过度自信和企业绩效的正向关系越弱;董事会越勤勉,管理者过度自信和企业绩效之间的正向关系越弱。根据研究结果,笔者提出了相应的政策建议:在企业聘用企业管理者时注重考查其心理特征;控制企业董事会规模;控制独立董事比例;增加事前董事会会议的次数,使董事会会议真正的发挥事前监督作用。希望这些建议能为实际的企业管理策略所参考。
[Abstract]:Since Modigliani put forward MM theory in 1950s, various financial theories have emerged in endlessly. For example, Berle (1932) put forward corporate governance theory. Krause (1973) put forward a tradeoff theory. Jensen (1976) put forward agent cost theory and Ross (1977) information asymmetry theory and Aghion (1992) theory of corporate control rights. These financial theories hold that the decision-makers of enterprises are rational, they will make policies according to the principle of maximization of interests, they can also obtain and deal with market information in time, and take the most rational and reasonable measures. However, with the development of financial research at home and abroad, these conclusions based on rational man hypothesis have been more and more doubted and criticized by academic circles. Therefore, foreign psychology or economics experts try to introduce new research paradigm into financial research based on the assumption of "irrational people" of managers, which enriches and improves these traditional financial theories. In recent years, the "irrational" phenomenon of senior managers has gradually become the research hotspot of various disciplines. Management overconfidence refers to the management of a considerable number of people will be self-centered, overestimated their own knowledge, access to information and other abilities, confidence that can achieve success. With the further study of the theory of manager overconfidence, the financial accounting field begins to study the interaction and results between manager overconfidence and enterprise performance. At present, there are three viewpoints in academic circles: manager overconfidence is positively correlated with firm performance, negative correlation or no obvious correlation. In addition, relevant studies have proved that board governance can significantly affect the operation of the enterprise as a whole, performance and development. Vance (1968) believes that the proportion of independent directors and corporate performance is a reverse relationship, However, the proportion of internal directors and corporate performance is a positive relationship. However, these studies rarely consider the psychological state of management, we find that in the actual situation, management will be prone to the phenomenon of overconfidence, and even this confidence will have a serious impact on corporate performance. Based on the review and analysis of the literature on manager overconfidence, corporate performance and the governance structure of the board of directors at home and abroad, It is found that few scholars regard board governance as the "intermediate bridge" between managers' overconfidence and enterprise performance, so this study takes board governance as a starting point and brings board governance into the study of factors. In order to enrich the domestic academic achievements about the influence mechanism of manager overconfidence on enterprise performance. Based on the former research results, the effective data of listed enterprises are collected, and the descriptive analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis of the data are carried out. The empirical study shows that the relationship between manager overconfidence and enterprise performance is positive; the larger the board size, the weaker the positive relationship between manager overconfidence and firm performance; the larger the proportion of independent directors, the greater the positive relationship between manager overconfidence and enterprise performance. The stronger the positive relationship between manager overconfidence and firm performance, the weaker the positive relationship between manager overconfidence and firm performance. According to the results of the study, the author puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions: pay attention to the psychological characteristics of the enterprise managers, control the size of the enterprise board of directors, control the proportion of independent directors, increase the number of prior board meetings. Enable the board meeting to play a real supervisory role in advance. I hope these suggestions can be used as a reference for the actual enterprise management strategy.
【学位授予单位】：西华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275;F272.91;F832.51

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