资产价格波动与货币政策操作效果研究——基于IS-Philips模型的模拟分析

发布时间：2018-07-01 15:58

本文选题：资产价格 + 货币政策　；参考：《价格理论与实践》2017年05期

【摘要】：近年来,我国房地产价格呈快速上涨趋势,股票等资产价格波动较大,货币政策的实施难度加大,其所反映信息的真实性亟待探讨。研究考虑包含资本市场价格波动因素的货币政策效果,可以为优化货币政策制定,稳定金融市场提供参考。本文利用我国2001年1月至2016年10月的月度数据模拟分析了考虑不同资产价格(股票价格和房地产价格)的货币政策规则对最优利率、实际产出的影响。最后,采用向量自回归模型分析了变量之间的动态关系。研究表明:中央银行采取的货币政策操作会对资产价格产生影响。而这一影响恰恰是央行关注的重点,但不是货币政策制定的依据。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate price of our country is rising rapidly, the price of stock and other assets fluctuates greatly, the implementation of monetary policy becomes more difficult, and the authenticity of the information reflected in it needs to be discussed urgently. The study on the effect of monetary policy including the fluctuation of capital market price can provide a reference for optimizing the monetary policy formulation and stabilizing the financial market. Based on the monthly data from January 2001 to October 2016, this paper analyzes the influence of monetary policy rules with different asset prices (stock price and real estate price) on the optimal interest rate and real output. Finally, a vector autoregressive model is used to analyze the dynamic relationship between variables. The study shows that the monetary policy operation adopted by the central bank will have an impact on asset prices. This effect is precisely the focus of the central bank, but not the basis for monetary policy.
【作者单位】：山东财经大学;内蒙古财经大学;
【基金】：国家社科基金一般项目:西部地区承接产业转移与促进就业增长互动机制研究(14BJL097)
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.5

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