新兴技术商业化的实物期权价值及投资决策

发布时间：2018-07-05 01:01

本文选题：新兴技术 + 实物期权　；参考：《管理工程学报》2017年04期

【摘要】：本文从实物期权角度讨论了企业投资新兴技术商业化动力机制。本文以创新扩散理论与实物期权理论为基础,把BASS模型特殊形式Coleman模型作为新兴技术商业化过程模拟,兴盛事件发生视为一种泊松分布,分别计算新兴技术商业化投资期权和等待期权变化,以帮助企业正确判断新兴技术商业化投资时机。本文致力于构建投资新兴技术商业化的一种基于实物期权价值分析方法,并通过数值模拟实现了具体应用,解决长期以来新兴技术商业化期权价值如何考虑创新扩散速度与兴盛事件爆发的难题,为企业投资新兴技术商业化提供更接近现实的决策模型。
[Abstract]:From the perspective of real options, this paper discusses the dynamic mechanism of commercialization of emerging technologies. On the basis of innovation diffusion theory and real option theory, the Coleman model, a special form of BASS model, is used to simulate the commercialization process of emerging technologies. The occurrence of prosperous events is regarded as a Poisson distribution. The commercial investment options and waiting options of emerging technologies are calculated respectively to help enterprises judge the timing of commercialized investment of emerging technologies. This paper is devoted to constructing a real option value analysis method based on the commercialization of investment emerging technology, and has realized the concrete application by numerical simulation. In order to solve the problem of how to consider the speed of innovation diffusion and the outbreak of prosperous events, this paper provides a more realistic decision model for enterprises to invest in the commercialization of emerging technologies.
【作者单位】：四川师范大学经济与管理学院;西南财经大学天府学院;电子科技大学;西南民族大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学青年资助项目(12CGL016) 国家社会科学基金资助项目(12BXW028) 教育部人文社会科学研究项目青年基金资助项目(11YJCZH033) 四川师范大学校级科研资助项目(13KYW21)
【分类号】：F830.9

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