中国股市行业轮动投资时钟探究

发布时间：2018-07-09 20:10

本文选题：我国A股市场 + 经济周期　；参考：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：2004年，美林证券发表了震撼业界的针对股票投资周期的总结性质研究报告《The InvestmentClock》，它首次全面给出了投资时钟的概念和定义。根据经济增长趋势和通货膨胀的变动，美林证券的研究者将经济刻划为四大不同的阶段，并且根据历史统计数据得到了每一个阶段应该采取的不同投资策略。据此，对应于我国A股市场，也可以参考并做出类似的周期轮动性配置方案。不断的主动调整行业板块的配置，在风险分散的情况下，做到最佳收益。本文为此提出了两大模型，，分别针对经济增长和通货膨胀建模,并针对我国股票市场的特定周期进行了实证检查分析。然后提出了针对我国股票市场特色的投资策略。
[Abstract]:In 2004, Merrill Lynch published a summative research report on the stock investment cycle < the Investment clock], which gave the concept and definition of the investment clock for the first time. According to the trend of economic growth and the change of inflation, the researchers of Merrill Lynch describe the economy as four different stages, and according to historical statistics, get different investment strategies for each stage. Accordingly, corresponding to the A-share market of our country, we can also refer to and make a similar cycle rotation configuration scheme. Constantly actively adjust the industry sector allocation, in the case of risk dispersion, to achieve the best returns. In this paper, two models are proposed, one is for economic growth and the other is for inflation, and the empirical analysis is carried out for the specific period of stock market in China. Then it puts forward the investment strategy aiming at the characteristics of Chinese stock market.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51

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