我国期房市场与现房市场价格波动特征及关系分析
发布时间：2018-07-29 11:52
【摘要】：面对预售制度的推行过程中的产生的各种问题,是否应该取消该制度一直以来都是社会争论的焦点,这就需要对我国的期房市场与现房市场的关系,以及期房市场对现房市场有怎样的影响和作用进行研究讨论。本文研究了全国24个省市自治区直辖市的期房房价与现房房价之间的相互关系。包括理论部分的分析和实证角度的分析两部分。其中实证部分采用了Granger因果检验和GARCH模型,对期房房价和现房房价的关系、价格波动的基本特征以及期房房价对现房房价的稳定性作用进行了分析。研究结果显示:期房和现房价格存在长期稳定的关系,并且大部分地区的期房价格引领现房房价;从波动特征上来看,期房价格和现房价格均存在波动的持续性和聚集性,并且绝大部分地区期房价格收益率对现房收益率波动有稳定作用,对于几个有显著增强波动作用的地区做了简单的分析。
[Abstract]:In the face of various problems arising from the implementation of the pre-sale system, whether or not the system should be abolished has always been the focus of social controversy, which calls for the relationship between the future housing market and the present housing market in China. As well as the future housing market on the existing housing market impact and role of research and discussion. In this paper, we study the relationship between the house price and the real house price in 24 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government. Including the theoretical part of the analysis and empirical analysis of the two parts. The empirical part uses Granger causality test and GARCH model to analyze the relationship between house price and real house price, the basic characteristics of price fluctuation and the stability of house price. The results show that: there is a long-term stable relationship between futures and real house prices, and the prices of futures houses in most areas lead to real house prices; from the point of view of the fluctuation characteristics, the price of futures houses and real house prices both have the continuity and aggregation of fluctuations. And most of the future housing price return rate has a stable effect on the volatility of the real house yield, for several regions with significantly enhanced volatility, a simple analysis.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23
[Abstract]:In the face of various problems arising from the implementation of the pre-sale system, whether or not the system should be abolished has always been the focus of social controversy, which calls for the relationship between the future housing market and the present housing market in China. As well as the future housing market on the existing housing market impact and role of research and discussion. In this paper, we study the relationship between the house price and the real house price in 24 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government. Including the theoretical part of the analysis and empirical analysis of the two parts. The empirical part uses Granger causality test and GARCH model to analyze the relationship between house price and real house price, the basic characteristics of price fluctuation and the stability of house price. The results show that: there is a long-term stable relationship between futures and real house prices, and the prices of futures houses in most areas lead to real house prices; from the point of view of the fluctuation characteristics, the price of futures houses and real house prices both have the continuity and aggregation of fluctuations. And most of the future housing price return rate has a stable effect on the volatility of the real house yield, for several regions with significantly enhanced volatility, a simple analysis.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23
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