高房价对消费结构升级的影响:基于35个大中城市的实证研究

发布时间：2018-08-16 07:55

【摘要】：近年来,中国消费结构升级的步伐趋缓,其原因尚未得到合理解释,本文试图从房价上涨这一角度提供一个可能的解释。运用35个大中城市2000—2013年的面板数据进行实证研究发现,房价上涨抑制了消费结构升级,就全部样本数据而言,房价每上涨1个百分点,消费结构升级指数将下降0.27个百分点,并且房价上涨对交通通讯、教育文化娱乐和医疗保健等升级型消费支出的影响具有明显的差异性;分地区估计结果显示,房价对东中西部城市居民消费结构升级也具有显著的差异性,东部城市和西部城市房价上涨对消费结构升级均呈现抑制作用,中部城市房价上涨对居民的消费结构升级没有显著的影响。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the pace of consumption structure upgrading in China has slowed down, the reasons for which have not been properly explained. This paper attempts to provide a possible explanation from the perspective of rising house prices. Using panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities from 2000 to 2013, it is found that the rise of house prices inhibits the upgrading of consumption structure. In terms of all sample data, housing prices rise by 1 percentage point. The consumer structure upgrade index will decrease by 0.27 percentage points, and the impact of rising house prices on transportation, education, culture, entertainment and health care will be significantly different. Housing prices also have significant differences in the upgrading of the consumption structure of urban residents in the east, central and western regions, and the rise in house prices in the eastern and western cities has a restraining effect on the upgrading of the consumption structure. The rise of housing prices in central cities has no significant impact on the upgrading of residents' consumption structure.
【作者单位】：上海财经大学财经研究所;上海财经大学上海市金融信息技术研究重点实验室;上海财经大学金融学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“新常态下建立多点支撑的消费增长格局研究”(15ZDA013) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-13-0891)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F126.1;F299.23

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