西安市商品住房需求分析研究

发布时间：2018-12-08 18:36

【摘要】：面对近年来住房市场飞速发展，房价上涨过快的现象，我国从2011年起出台了新的“限购限贷”政策。但是新政运行至今，大多数重点城市的房价和销售量仍在增长，并且我国住房市场已逐步呈现区域分化的趋势，不同城市的市场预期也开始变得不同。因此，本文对于西安市商品住房需求的分析研究是非常有必要的，只有清楚了西安市商品住房需求的发展情况，结构情况以及未来的变化趋势，，才能有针对性的做好下一阶段市场的发展与调控规划，保障西安商品住房市场的健康发展。对此，本文先对近年来西安市商品住房市场需求情况的呈现的指标数据进行分析，找出整体住房市场需求发展的特点与问题；再通过商品住房需求的结构分析，将住房需求依照线型支出系统模型划分为基本需求和由奢华享受、投资投机为目的的超额需求，来深入剖析西安市商品住房市场需求结构的发展现状。接着，采用计量经济学模型分别分析影响西安市商品住房整体需求、基本需求和超额需求发展的市场因素及影响程度，以此为基础，建立精度更高的灰色组合模型，预测未来西安市商品住房的需求量和需求结构的变化趋势。进而根据西安商品住房市场需求的特点、结构、影响因素以及趋势分析的总结，提出适应西安商品住房需求变化的市场健康发展对策及政策调控意见。论文对西安商品住房的需求进行了深入研究，不仅能使西安市政府对西安住房市场发展与住房需求发展的情况有了更为明确的判断，为其总体布局、政策调控与倾斜、体制的完善等政策措施的提供借鉴；还能为我国其他地区区域住房市场需求分析提供借鉴，为促进区域商品住房市场健康发展有重要指导意义。
[Abstract]:In the face of the rapid development of housing market and the rapid rise of house prices in recent years, China has introduced a new policy of "limiting purchase and lending" since 2011. But up to now, the housing prices and sales in most key cities are still increasing, and the housing market of our country has gradually shown the trend of regional differentiation, and the market expectations of different cities are also beginning to be different. Therefore, this paper is very necessary for the analysis and study of commodity housing demand in Xi'an. Only the development, structure and future trends of commodity housing demand in Xi'an are clear. In order to ensure the healthy development of Xi'an commodity housing market, the next stage of market development and regulation planning can be done well. In view of this, this paper first analyzes the index data of the commodity housing market demand in Xi'an in recent years, and finds out the characteristics and problems of the development of the overall housing market demand. Through the structural analysis of commodity housing demand, housing demand is divided into basic demand and excess demand for luxury enjoyment and investment speculation according to linear expenditure system model. To analyze the Xi'an commodity housing market demand structure of the development of the current situation. Then, the econometrics model is used to analyze the market factors that affect the development of commodity housing demand, basic demand and excess demand in Xi'an city, and the grey combination model with higher precision is established. Forecast the demand of commodity housing and the change trend of demand structure in Xi'an city in the future. Then according to the characteristics, structure, influencing factors and trend analysis of Xi'an commodity housing market demand, the paper puts forward the market healthy development countermeasures and policy control suggestions to adapt to the change of Xi'an commodity housing demand. The paper has carried on the thorough research to the Xi'an commodity housing demand, not only can make the Xi'an municipal government have the clearer judgment to the Xi'an housing market development and the housing demand development situation, for its overall layout, the policy control and the inclination. System improvement and other policy measures to provide reference; It can also provide reference for the analysis of regional housing market demand in other regions of China, and has important guiding significance for promoting the healthy development of regional commodity housing market.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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