情景分析法在周期性公司收益法估值中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 02:29

本文关键词： 情景分析法收益法周期性公司现金流量折现应用　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：面对周期性公司估值这一难题及热点,收益法是周期性公司估值广泛使用的方法,但是宏观经济的发展有很强的不确定性,这种不确定性会直接或间接的影响到周期性公司收益法估值的结果,为了使周期性公司收益法估值结果更客观合理引入了情景分析法。在研究如何把情景分析法应用于周期性公司收益法估值的过程中,本文采用了文献综述、理论分析、归纳总结、概率统计、对比分析、案例分析、图表分析等方法和手段。目前,国内一些学者在用收益法评估周期性公司时采用了情景分析法,但情景分析法在其中往往只作为一种创新点或者案例分析的辅助部分,关于情景分析法在收益法估值中应用的模型种类及详细步骤等方面的具体研究并不丰富。本文分析周期性公司价值评估方法并分析收益法的适用性和局限性后,归纳情景分析法在周期性公司收益法(以企业自由现金流量折现法为例)估值中运用的几种不同思路及其差异,总结对比出各种思路下的收益法改进模型的特点及适用性;并找出情景分析法应用于周期性公司收益法估值过程中情景分析部分的难点问题——周期性公司收益法估值的未来情景构建与情景概率确定。进而,详细阐述周期性公司未来情景构建的每一步、情景概率确定的几种方法等应用过程中的关键问题。并以某周期性上市公司为案例,把情景分析法在周期性公司收益法估值中的应用过程完整呈现在该案例分析里。通过本文的研究,得到以下几点结论:首先,情景分析法和周期性公司收益法估值相结合的具体应用步骤由情景构建、情景概率确定、分析情景内容、测算每个情景下的收益额、用情景概率对收益法估值模型进行改进并依此计算出周期性公司估值结果一共五步构成;其次,改进周期性公司收益法估值模型分别有,用情景概率分别对收益额加权和对每种情景下的企业价值加权两种方式(两阶段现金流量折现模型有4种方式);再次,构建具体情景需要恰当选择重要影响因素和关键外在驱动力量并依据它们构成情景框架,在情景框架下合理设置情景数量和划分情景内容;最后,周期性公司收益法估值未来情景的概率可以基于当前经济时点、基于历史信息、采用概率树法三种方法来确定。
[Abstract]:In the face of the problem and hot spot of periodic company valuation, income method is widely used in periodic company valuation, but there is strong uncertainty in the development of macro economy. This uncertainty directly or indirectly affects the valuation results of the cyclical corporate income approach, In order to make the valuation result of the periodic company income method more objective and reasonable, this paper introduces the scenario analysis method in the process of studying how to apply the scenario analysis method to the periodic company income method valuation, this paper adopts the literature review, the theory analysis, Inductive summary, probability statistics, comparative analysis, case analysis, chart analysis, and so on. At present, some domestic scholars use scenario analysis method in evaluating periodic companies with income method. But situational analysis is often used only as an innovation or as an auxiliary part of case analysis. The detailed research on the model types and detailed steps used in the valuation of income approach by scenario analysis is not rich. This paper analyzes the method of valuation of periodic companies and analyzes the applicability and limitation of the income approach. Several different ways of thinking and their differences in the valuation of the periodic company income method (taking the discounted free cash flow method of the enterprise as an example) are summarized, and the characteristics and applicability of the improved income method model under the various ideas are compared. And find out the difficult problem of the scenario analysis in the process of applying the scenario analysis method to the valuation of the periodic company income method-the future scenario construction and the scenario probability determination of the periodic company income method valuation. In this paper, the key problems in the application process of the future scenario construction of a periodic company are described in detail, such as each step of constructing the future scenario, several methods of determining the scenario probability, and taking a periodic listed company as an example, The application process of scenario analysis in the periodic company income valuation is presented in this case analysis. Through the study of this paper, the following conclusions are obtained: first, The specific application steps of the combination of scenario analysis and periodic company income valuation are scenario construction, scenario probability determination, analysis of scenario content, and measurement of income under each scenario. Using scenario probability to improve the income valuation model and calculate the periodic company valuation results a total of five steps; secondly, the improved periodic company income valuation model are, There are two ways of weighting the profit amount with scenario probability and the enterprise value under each scenario (there are four ways in the two-stage cash flow discounted model). To construct a specific situation, we need to properly select the important influencing factors and the key external driving forces and form a situational framework according to which the number of scenarios and the content of the scenarios can be reasonably set up under the situational framework. Finally, The probability of the periodic company income method can be determined based on the current economic time point and historical information, and the probability tree method is used to determine the probability tree method.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275

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