赊销最佳时机选择的集成式决策模型与方法

发布时间：2018-03-10 12:56

本文选题：收益估测　切入点：几何布朗运动　出处：《系统工程理论与实践》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文依据几何布朗运动理论,在综合考虑不完全信息状态下不同信用等级的差别定价、履约概率、需求转移以及商机存在概率的基础上,建立了集成式赊销决策优化模型,并推出全新的赊销决策规则.实证结论表明,不同信用等级采用不同的风险溢价标准、商机存在概率和需求转移率,有利于提高推出赊销后总收益估算精度,为赊销时机的选择提供依据;改进后的赊销时机选择规则提供了直接计算最佳时机的简便方法,克服了传统对比方式的局限性.
[Abstract]:Based on the geometric Brown motion theory, considering the differential pricing, different credit rating in incomplete information state performance probability, there needs and opportunities on the basis of probability, to establish an integrated credit decision optimization model, and the introduction of new credit decision rules. The empirical results indicate that the different credit rating by different standards of risk premium the opportunities exist and the probability of demand transfer rate is conducive to improve the estimation accuracy of the total revenue after launch credit credit, provide the basis for the choice of the time; the improved credit timing rule for the simple method to calculate the best time, to overcome the limitation of the traditional mode of contrast.

【作者单位】：河北经贸大学工商管理学院;
【基金】：河北省社会科学发展研究课题(201606050102) 河北省自然科学基金(G2013207004) 河北经贸大学校内科研基金重点项目(2014KYZ03)~~
【分类号】：F274

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