分析师预测对企业融资约束的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 22:30

本文选题：分析师预测 + 融资约束　；参考：《兰州大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：融资是企业的主要经济活动之一,直接关系到企业的未来发展。然而,在寻求外部资金支持的过程中,我国企业却普遍地遭受融资约束问题。市场上的信息不对称增加了企业外部融资成本,是产生融资约束问题的主要原因。因此,提高信息在披露、传输、解读及反馈环节上的效率是解决该问题的关键所在,而分析师就是这样的一种市场机制。作为资本市场上的信息中介,分析师为企业与投资者搭起了信息沟通的桥梁。他们是企业信息的重要解读者和传播者,利用自身信息搜集和解析上的双重优势,分析企业的发展潜力以及投资价值。分析师预测成为市场上的一种增量信息,不仅揭示了企业的信息环境状况,还能够对企业的投资风险进行预警,进而很可能影响到投资者的风险评估和价值判断。近年来我国分析师队伍不断发展壮大,分析师行业也逐渐规范化和专业化,那么分析师在资本市场上究竟发挥了什么样的作用?分析师预测为企业的融资活动带来了什么样的影响呢?本文将基于我国的制度环境,审视分析师预测的市场作用。本文选取2009-2014年沪深两市A股主板上市公司作为研究样本,首次将分析师预测和企业融资约束纳入同一研究框架,具体从预测误差和预测分歧两方面讨论了分析师预测对企业融资活动可能产生的影响。在此基础上,进一步讨论了企业个体特征(产权性质和企业规模)对二者关系的调节作用。研究结果显示:分析师预测误差与企业融资约束显著正相关,预测分歧与企业融资约束也显著正相关。这表明分析师预测在市场上具有信息效应,能够影响经济资源的配置。然而,分析师预测对融资约束的影响会随着企业的不同而产生较大的差异。与国有和规模较大的企业相比,分析师预测对融资约束的影响在民营和规模较小的企业中表现得更加明显。本文在前期学者研究的基础上,将融资约束的影响因素进一步延伸至分析师预测领域,不仅扩展了融资约束影响因素的研究视角,还丰富了分析师预测经济后果的研究内容。同时,为监管部门进一步规范和监督分析师的预测行为提供了理论依据,推动了资本市场的健康发展。
[Abstract]:Financing is one of the main economic activities of enterprises, directly related to the future development of enterprises. However, in the process of seeking external financial support, Chinese enterprises generally suffer from financing constraints. The asymmetric information in the market increases the external financing cost of enterprises and is the main reason for financing constraints. Therefore, improving the efficiency of information disclosure, transmission, interpretation and feedback is the key to solve the problem, and analysts are such a market mechanism. As an information intermediary in the capital market, analysts have built a bridge of information communication between enterprises and investors. They are the important readers and communicators of enterprise information. They make use of their dual advantages in information collection and analysis to analyze the development potential and investment value of enterprises. The analyst forecast becomes a kind of incremental information in the market, which not only reveals the situation of the enterprise information environment, but also can warn the investment risk of the enterprise, which may affect the risk assessment and value judgment of the investor. In recent years, the ranks of analysts in China have been growing, and the analyst industry has become more and more standardized and specialized. What kind of role has the analyst played in the capital market? What kind of impact does the analyst forecast to bring to the enterprise financing activity? Based on the institutional environment of our country, this paper will examine the market function of analyst forecast. This paper selects the A-share main Board listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in 2009-2014 as the research sample, and for the first time, brings the analyst forecast and the corporate financing constraints into the same research framework. This paper discusses the possible impact of analyst forecast on corporate financing activities from two aspects of forecasting error and forecasting divergence. On this basis, the author further discusses the regulating effect of the individual characteristics of the enterprise (property right and enterprise scale) on the relationship between the two. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the prediction error and corporate financing constraints, as well as between forecasting divergence and corporate financing constraints. This shows that analysts predict that there is an information effect in the market that can affect the allocation of economic resources. However, analysts predict that the impact on financing constraints will vary greatly with different firms. Compared with state-owned and larger firms, analysts predict that the impact on financing constraints is more pronounced in private and smaller firms. On the basis of previous research, this paper extends the influence factors of financing constraints to the field of analyst forecasting, which not only expands the perspective of financial constraints, but also enriches the research content of analysts' prediction of economic consequences. At the same time, it provides a theoretical basis for regulators to further regulate and supervise the forecast behavior of analysts, and promotes the healthy development of capital markets.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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