基于利益相关者视角的企业财务危机预警仿真研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 08:00

本文选题：利益相关者 + 财务危机　；参考：《江苏师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着全球经济一体化步伐的加快,企业在迎接改革和发展机遇的同时,也面临更加激烈的竞争和更加复杂的内外部环境,多数企业往往面临的是生存问题,然后才是发展问题。如何适应环境变化,提高抗风险能力,是摆在企业管理者面前一个既现实又严峻的问题。在这种形势下,预警管理的重要性日益凸显,企业信息化水平的提高也为企业建立预警体系奠定了基础。因此,关于企业财务危机的预警和控制问题成为学术界和实务界致力研究的重要课题。当前国内外学者关于财务危机的研究成果主要集中在各种财务预警模型上,这为财务危机研究的进一步发展奠定了良好的基础。然而传统财务预警模型大多侧重于分析内部财务数据,缺乏从系统全局的角度考虑财务危机的形成过程,因此,无法从根源上找出企业财务的病因所在,也很难为企业管理者所用。鉴于此,本文从利益相关者的视角出发,通过分析利益相关者的行为模式,深入剖析企业财务危机演化的动因、演化路径,并利用系统动力学建模方法建立财务预警模型,最后通过实例分析验证模型的科学性和可行性,为企业财务预警管理工作提供理论指导和方法借鉴。本文首先回顾了国内外关于企业财务预警的研究现状,在此基础上提出本文的研究思路和方法。其次,揭示企业财务危机演化机理。深入探讨利益相关者行为与企业财务危机之间的逻辑关联,在微观个体行为和宏观财务危机现象之间建立起联系的桥梁,全面系统地分析了导致财务危机的关键因素以及企业财务危机的演化路径,为研究财务危机预警管理这类复杂问题提供了新的理论依据。再次,在Vensim仿真环境下建立基于利益相关者的企业财务危机预警仿真模型。以系统动力学为工具,注重分析企业财务系统内外部结构和变量间因果关系,全面展示了企业财务危机的形成路径和演化过程。最后,以某造纸企业为样本,对仿真模型进行了应用,进一步验证研究成果的科学性和可行性。不仅辨识了财务危机因素,还通过敏感性分析为财务政策的制定和调整提供了参考依据。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the pace of global economic integration, enterprises are facing more fierce competition and more complex internal and external environment while meeting the opportunities of reform and development. Most enterprises often face survival problems, then development problems. How to adapt to the change of environment and improve the ability to resist risks is a realistic and severe problem for enterprise managers. In this situation, the importance of early warning management is increasingly prominent, and the improvement of enterprise information level has laid a foundation for the establishment of early warning system. Therefore, the problem of early warning and control of enterprise financial crisis has become an important research topic in academic and practical circles. At present, the research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars on financial crisis are mainly focused on various financial early-warning models, which has laid a good foundation for the further development of financial crisis research. However, most of the traditional financial early-warning models focus on the analysis of internal financial data, and lack of considering the forming process of financial crisis from the overall perspective of the system. Therefore, it is impossible to find out the cause of enterprise finance from the root. It is also difficult for business managers to use. In view of this, this paper, from the perspective of stakeholders, through the analysis of stakeholder behavior patterns, deeply analyzes the evolution of corporate financial crisis, evolution path, and the use of system dynamics modeling method to establish a financial early warning model. Finally, the model is proved to be scientific and feasible by example analysis, which provides theoretical guidance and method reference for enterprise financial early warning management. Firstly, this paper reviews the current research situation of enterprise financial early warning at home and abroad, and then puts forward the research ideas and methods of this paper. Secondly, it reveals the evolution mechanism of enterprise financial crisis. The logical relationship between stakeholder behavior and corporate financial crisis is discussed, and a bridge between micro individual behavior and macro financial crisis phenomenon is established. The key factors leading to financial crisis and the evolution path of enterprise financial crisis are analyzed in a comprehensive and systematic way, which provides a new theoretical basis for studying such complex problems as financial crisis early-warning management. Thirdly, an enterprise financial crisis early warning simulation model based on stakeholders is established in Vensim simulation environment. With the system dynamics as a tool, the causality between internal and external structure and variables of enterprise financial system is analyzed, and the formation path and evolution process of enterprise financial crisis are demonstrated. Finally, a paper making enterprise as a sample, the simulation model is applied to further verify the scientific and feasibility of the research results. It not only identifies the factors of financial crisis, but also provides a reference for the formulation and adjustment of financial policy through sensitivity analysis.
【学位授予单位】：江苏师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275

【相似文献】