顾客时间偏好下基于WCVaR的供应链采购与分销决策集成优化

发布时间：2018-06-17 23:19

本文选题：供应链集成优化 + 风险规避　；参考：《管理学报》2017年09期

【摘要】：在日常运作风险与失效风险并存环境下,通过多源采购、替代源供应和转运等弹性策略,研究决策者风险规避与顾客时间偏好行为下的供应链采购与分销决策集成优化问题,提出相应的随机机会约束规划模型及求解方法。研究发现:基于WCVaR风险测度的优化模型,能够使供应链利润与服务水平表现出更高的鲁棒性,从而更好地满足风险规避型决策者的决策需求;与下游分销环节的不确定性相比,风险规避型决策者应当更加重视上游采购环节不确定性的应对与控制;产品流行期的延长和顾客对产品长期与短期价值感知敏感程度的降低,都会促进供应链收益能力的提高。此外,根据敏感性分析的结论,对风险规避型决策者在顾客时间偏好下的采购与分销决策提出建议。
[Abstract]:Under the environment of daily operation risk and failure risk, through the elastic strategies of multi-source purchasing, alternative source supply and transshipment, this paper studies the integration optimization of supply chain purchasing and distribution decision under the behavior of risk aversion and customer time preference. A stochastic chance constrained programming model and its solution are proposed. It is found that the optimization model based on WCVaR risk measurement can make the profit and service level of supply chain show higher robustness, thus better meet the decision-making needs of risk-averse decision makers, and compare with the uncertainty of downstream distribution link. The risk-averse decision makers should pay more attention to the uncertainty response and control of the upstream purchasing process, and the prolongation of the product catchment period and the reduction of the sensitivity of customers to the long-term and short-term value perception of the products will promote the improvement of the profitability of the supply chain. In addition, according to the conclusion of sensitivity analysis, some suggestions are put forward for risk-averse decision makers to make purchase and distribution decisions under customer time preference.
【作者单位】：东北大学工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70972100,71372186)
【分类号】：F274;F713.55

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