国际油价冲击对中国企业出口增长的影响

发布时间：2018-06-22 20:18

本文选题：油价冲击 + 出口增长　；参考：《国际贸易问题》2017年02期

【摘要】：本文把油价冲击分解方法和出口增长分解方法相结合,使用中国工业企业数据库和中国专利数据库的匹配数据,运用生存分析方法、面板回归方法和Probit回归方法研究油价冲击对企业出口长度、出口深度和出口广度的影响。结果表明:三种冲击对企业出口长度都有负向的影响;石油供给冲击对企业出口深度有负向的影响,经济总需求冲击对企业出口深度有正向的影响;石油供给冲击对企业出口广度有负向的影响,经济总需求冲击和石油特定需求冲击对企业出口广度有正向的影响。本文还按照能源强度和要素密集度对企业进行归类并分别做了实证检验。最后,本文提出了识别油价冲击的来源,增加企业出口的政策建议。
[Abstract]:This paper combines the oil price shock decomposition method with the export growth decomposition method, uses the matching data of the Chinese industrial enterprise database and the Chinese patent database, and uses the survival analysis method. Panel regression method and probit regression method are used to study the impact of oil price shock on the export length, depth and breadth of export. The results show that the three kinds of shocks have a negative impact on the export length of enterprises, oil supply shocks have a negative impact on the export depth of enterprises, and the impact of total economic demand has a positive impact on the export depth of enterprises. The oil supply shock has a negative impact on the enterprise export breadth, while the economic aggregate demand impact and the oil specific demand impact have a positive impact on the enterprise export breadth. This paper also classifies the enterprises according to the energy intensity and factor intensity and makes an empirical test. Finally, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to identify the source of oil price shock and increase the export of enterprises.
【作者单位】：南京理工大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新常态下产业集聚的环境效益与调控政策研究”(15ZDA053);国家社会科学基金重点项目“价值链分工、经济空间格局优化与中国新战略区域发展研究”(14AZD021)
【分类号】：F752.62;F279.2

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