研发项目中重叠活动间沟通对返工风险的影响分析与优化

发布时间：2018-08-27 10:25

【摘要】：设计活动间的重叠是并行研发项目的基本特征,重叠可以缩短工期,但也会带来返工风险,并增加与重叠并行性相关的成本.为探索重叠活动间的多次沟通对返工风险的影响,本文构建了基于多次沟通-风险的重叠模型,建立了上游活动信息变更率和下游活动返工影响敏感度计算模型,在此基础上构建了活动返工风险和返工量计算模型及与重叠并行性相关的成本模型,进一步,以成本节约值最大化为目标函数,采用Fmincon算法优化得到了多次沟通时最佳的沟通次数和沟通间隔.最后,结合典型案例,在对重叠活动间沟通变量优化的基础上,对设计结构矩阵(DSM)进行排序优化并将优化结果进行仿真,结果表明本文提出的方法可降低项目时间和成本.
[Abstract]:Overlap between design activities is the basic feature of parallel R & D projects. Overlap can shorten the duration of the project, but it will also bring the risk of rework and increase the cost associated with overlapping parallelism. In order to explore the influence of multiple communication between overlapping activities on rework risk, an overlap model based on multiple communication-risk is constructed, and a calculation model of upstream activity information change rate and downstream activity rework impact sensitivity is established. On this basis, the calculation model of activity rework risk and rework volume and the cost model related to overlapping parallelism are constructed. Furthermore, the goal function is to maximize the value of cost savings. The Fmincon algorithm is used to optimize the optimal communication times and communication intervals. Finally, based on the optimization of communication variables between overlapping activities, the optimization of design structure matrix (DSM) is carried out and the results are simulated. The results show that the method proposed in this paper can reduce the project time and cost.
【作者单位】：北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71472013,71528005) 中央高校基本科研业务费(FRF-BR-16-002B)~~
【分类号】：F273

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