虚拟社区用户生存时间的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-09-17 15:22

【摘要】：随着信息技术的发展,人们越来越喜欢在网上进行社交活动。虚拟社区作为一种在线信息交流平台,近年来得到了迅速发展。目前,学者们对虚拟社区的研究大多是对用户参与动机、满意度等方面的研究,缺乏对用户整个参与周期的追踪研究。而对于虚拟社区而言,大量且稳定的用户群体是其长期发展的保障。所以,研究用户的长期参与行为,探究用户流失的原因,对虚拟社区的发展是十分重要的。生存分析法可以研究事件的发生以及持续时间等问题,在用户流失的研究方面具有一定的适用性。本文运用生存分析法,对知识型虚拟社区的用户进行追踪分析,研究用户的的生存时间及其影响因素。本文从社会资本、社区支持、个人特征三大方面研究用户行为的影响因素,首先分别搜集了2008年、2014年对此论坛用户的调查问卷数据,又在2016年对这部分用户的实际参与行为的数据进行了抓取,利用SPSS21分析软件中的寿命表分析法、Kaplan-Meier分析、COX回归模型等方法分析了虚拟社区不同发展阶段用户生存时间的分布状况以及影响因素。本文研究结果表明:(1)在虚拟社区的发展较早的时期,影响用户生存时间的保护因素有参与水平、受教育程度、社区对用户自由表达的支持(FE)、社区对用户沟通交流的支持(SMC),即它们的取值越高,用户流失的风险越低。论坛用户生存时间的危险因素有性别,在这里性别因素的作用表示男性用户流失低于女性。(2)在虚拟社区发展较成熟的时期,影响用户生存时间的保护因素有受教育程度、身份地位、认知社会资本(CSC)和社区对用户自由表达的支持(FE),即它们的取值越高,用户流失风险越低。本文的研究既是对虚拟社区相关研究理论的补充,也对促进虚拟社区的长期发展具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:With the development of information technology, people are more and more interested in social activities on the Internet. As an online information exchange platform, virtual community has developed rapidly in recent years. At present, most of the research on virtual community is about user participation motivation and satisfaction, and lack of tracking research on the whole participation cycle of users. For virtual community, a large number of stable user groups are the guarantee of its long-term development. Therefore, it is very important for the development of virtual community to study the long-term participation behavior of users and explore the reasons for the loss of users. Survival analysis can be used to study the occurrence and duration of events, and is applicable to the study of user loss. In this paper, we use survival analysis method to track and analyze the users of the knowledge based virtual community, and study the survival time of the users and their influencing factors. This paper studies the influencing factors of user behavior from three aspects: social capital, community support and personal characteristics. Firstly, we collect the questionnaire data of users of this forum in 2008 and 2014, respectively. In 2016, data on the actual engagement behavior of this group of users were captured. By using the life table analysis method in SPSS21 software, Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression model, this paper analyzes the distribution of user's life time and its influencing factors in different stages of virtual community development. The results of this paper show that: (1) in the early period of the development of virtual community, the protective factors affecting the user's survival time are participation level and education level. Community support for user free expression (FE), community support for user communication (SMC), that is the higher their value the lower the risk of user loss. The risk factors of the survival time of forum users are gender, where the role of gender factors indicates that male users lose less than women. (2) in the mature period of virtual community development, the protective factors that affect the survival time of users are education level. Identity status, cognitive social capital (CSC) and community support for user free expression (FE),) mean that the higher their value, the lower the risk of user loss. The research in this paper is not only a supplement to the theory of virtual community, but also of great significance to promote the long-term development of virtual community.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F724.6;F274

【参考文献】