信贷供给周期对微观企业风险的双向效应研究

发布时间：2018-11-27 11:16

【摘要】：本文检验了信贷供给周期对微观企业风险的影响,结果发现,信贷供给周期具有双向效应,总量效应体现为信贷扩张降低了企业异质性风险,而结构效应体现为信贷扩张提高了企业的系统风险,总体而言信贷扩张增加了微观企业的总风险。从不同类型企业的检验结果看,信贷供给扩张能够在更高程度上降低高增长、小规模企业的异质性风险,并在更低程度上提高两类企业的系统风险,总量效应占主导地位。而信贷供给扩张在更高程度上降低了国企和高杠杆企业的异质性风险,并在更低程度上提高两类企业的系统风险,结构效应占主导地位。从不同宏观经济形势的结果看,在宏观经济不确定性较高的时期,信贷供给的总量效应较弱而结构效应更强。本文揭示了信贷供给周期在微观企业层面累积风险的根源、具体机理及其表现形式,对于新常态下如何改善总需求管理、实现供给侧改革和总需求管理的协调配合具有一定的启示。
[Abstract]:This paper examines the effect of credit supply cycle on micro enterprise risk. The results show that the credit supply cycle has a two-way effect, and the total effect is that credit expansion reduces the heterogeneous risk. The structural effect is that the credit expansion increases the systemic risk of the enterprise, and overall the credit expansion increases the total risk of the micro enterprise. According to the test results of different types of enterprises, the expansion of credit supply can reduce the heterogeneity risk of high growth and small scale enterprises to a higher degree, and to a lesser extent improve the system risk of the two types of enterprises, with the total effect dominating. The expansion of credit supply reduces the heterogeneity risk of state-owned enterprises and highly leveraged enterprises to a higher extent, and to a lesser extent raises the systemic risks of the two types of enterprises, with the structural effect dominating. From the results of different macroeconomic situations, in the period of high macroeconomic uncertainty, the aggregate effect of credit supply is weaker and the structural effect is stronger. This paper reveals the root causes, specific mechanisms and forms of cumulative risks in the credit supply cycle at the micro enterprise level, and how to improve aggregate demand management under the new normal state. The realization of supply-side reform and aggregate demand management coordination has certain enlightenment.
【作者单位】：山东财经大学金融学院;山东大学经济学院;
【基金】：泰山学者专项工程国家自然科学基金青年项目(71602101)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F276.3;F832.4

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