现金流不确定性与企业创新

发布时间：2019-02-16 00:05

【摘要】：本文拓展了现有研究框架,结合创新型行业中的"赢家效应"和融资摩擦,研究了复杂环境下企业在创新研发投入与现金持有之间的最优权衡及现金流不确定性对企业创新决策及定价的影响。研究发现,在"赢家效应"较强时,企业着眼于现金流不确定性所带来的"机遇","资助效应"占主导地位从而刺激企业进行较为激进的创新研发,此时现金流不确定性会提升企业价值。反之,在"赢家效应"较弱时,企业更注重现金流不确定性所带来的"风险","预防效应"占主导地位从而促使企业进行更为保守的创新研发,此时,现金流不确定性会降低企业价值。特别地,在融资约束附近,现金流的边际效用很大,现金流的不确定性会显著减小企业外部融资的概率,缓解融资约束并提升企业价值。此外,融资摩擦的存在可能会使现金流的不确定性对创新策略及企业价值产生更加复杂的影响。研究结果为创新型行业如何有效地管理现金流不确定性,合理地进行创新研发决策提供了重要的理论依据。
[Abstract]:This paper expands the existing research framework and combines the "winner effect" and financing friction in innovative industries. The optimal tradeoff between innovation R & D investment and cash holding and the influence of cash flow uncertainty on innovation decision and pricing are studied in complex environment. The study found that when the "winner effect" is strong, firms focus on the "opportunities" brought about by the uncertainty of cash flow, and the "financing effect" plays a dominant role in stimulating enterprises to carry out more radical innovation and R & D. At this point, cash flow uncertainty will enhance the value of the enterprise. On the other hand, when the "winner effect" is weak, the firm pays more attention to the "risk" brought by the uncertainty of cash flow, and the "precautionary effect" dominates the enterprise to carry on the more conservative innovation research and development, at this time, The uncertainty of cash flow will reduce the value of the enterprise. In particular, in the vicinity of financing constraints, the marginal utility of cash flow is very large, the uncertainty of cash flow will significantly reduce the probability of external financing, ease the financing constraints and enhance the value of enterprises. In addition, the existence of financing friction may make the uncertainty of cash flow have more complex influence on innovation strategy and enterprise value. The research results provide an important theoretical basis for how to effectively manage the uncertainty of cash flow and make rational decision on innovation research and development in innovative industries.
【作者单位】：电子科技大学经济与管理学院;中南财经政法大学金融学院;上海财经大学金融学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71573033;71373036;71271214;71522008)的资助
【分类号】：F273.1;F275

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