管理层业绩预告策略与隐含资本成本

发布时间：2019-05-18 21:44

【摘要】：本文基于2005-2012年中国上市公司样本,以剩余收益模型为基础计算公司隐含资本成本,研究上市公司管理层业绩预告策略与隐含资本成本之间的关系。实证检验发现,当管理层采取保守或一致预告策略时,公司隐含资本成本显著低于其采取乐观预告策略时,且此关系对于国企与非国企子样本皆成立,说明公司管理层的乐观预告策略受到了市场的惩罚。进一步的实证检验还发现,与自愿预告相比,强制预告情形下管理层预告策略对资本成本的影响更显著;好消息预告下,保守预告策略是最优策略,坏消息预告下,一致预告策略是最优策略。另外,采用两阶段的处置效应模型(Treatment Effect Model),考察了预告策略内生性的影响。上述关系在不同维度稳健性检验下仍然成立。相关研究结论有助于监管层和投资者了解不同预告策略所带来的经济后果,帮助管理层优化业绩预告策略、降低企业资本成本。
[Abstract]:Based on the sample of Chinese listed companies from 2005 to 2012, this paper calculates the implied capital cost of listed companies on the basis of residual income model, and studies the relationship between management performance prediction strategy and implied capital cost of listed companies. The empirical test shows that when the management adopts conservative or consistent prediction strategy, the implied cost of capital of the company is significantly lower than that of the optimistic prediction strategy, and this relationship is true for both state-owned enterprises and non-state enterprises. It shows that the optimistic forecast strategy of the management of the company has been punished by the market. Further empirical test also found that compared with voluntary forecasting, the impact of management forecasting strategy on capital cost is more significant in the case of compulsory forecasting. Under the good news prediction, the conservative prediction strategy is the optimal strategy, and under the bad news prediction, the consistent prediction strategy is the optimal strategy. In addition, the two-stage disposal effect model (Treatment Effect Model), was used to investigate the endogeny of the prediction strategy. The above relationship is still valid under the robustness test of different dimensions. The relevant research conclusions are helpful for regulators and investors to understand the economic consequences of different forecasting strategies, help management optimize performance forecasting strategies and reduce the cost of capital of enterprises.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学管理学院;国网冀北电力有限公司信息通信分公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目资助(71302146)资助
【分类号】：F275

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