引入企业资产质量指标的财务风险预警模型研究
发布时间：2019-06-29 20:13
【摘要】：财务风险是企业发展历程中常见的一种风险,其直观表现,简而言之,就是企业偿还不了到期债务,其产生的原因与企业的盈利能力、运营能力、内部控制等多种因素相关。财务风险对企业的危害不言而喻,轻则影响企业的正常经济活动,重则使企业陷入破产的境地。为了帮助企业应对财务风险,专家学者们提出了利用相关财务数据,构建财务风险预警模型以对财务风险进行预警的这一方法,其根本理论依据在于:企业财务风险的产生不是一蹴而就的,是一个渐进、由多种因素引发的过程,所以如果能够事先发现并控制好这些因素,那么就有可能将财务风险发生的可能性降到最低。本文正是在这一理论基础之上,将未被大多数学者采用的却经研究表明与企业财务风险有着密切联系的企业资产质量指标体系加入财务风险预警模型的构建中,以探讨资产质量指标体系的加入能否提高预警模型的准确性。本文大致可以分为理论分析、实证分析和对策建议三个部分。在理论分析部分,本文首先阐述了财务风险的定义和常见的财务预警模型,以及资产质量的相关定义和资产质量评价体系,接着说明了财务风险与资产质量的关系或者资产质量影响财务风险的机理;在实证分析部分,本文首先对样本公司和研究数据进行了选择,选取了2010至2013年首次被ST的48家上市公司以及配比的96家正常公司的数据,依次使用显著性检验和共线性诊断,对初步选择好的指标进行层层筛选,以确定用于构建逻辑回归模型的最终指标,最后利用这些确定好的最终指标来分别构建只含常用财务指标体系的传统预警模型与含有资产质量指标体系的资产质量模型,通过比较这两种预警模型的结果,发现资产质量指标的引入能够提高财务风险预警模型的准确性;在对策建议部分,本文结合理论分析与实证分析,给管理者提供了树立风险意识、做好资产管理等建议,以帮助企业降低财务风险的可能性。
[Abstract]:Financial risk is a common risk in the course of enterprise development, its intuitive performance, in short, the enterprise can not repay the debt due, the reasons are related to the profitability of the enterprise, operational capacity, internal control and other factors. The harm of financial risk to enterprises is self-evident, which affects the normal economic activities of enterprises and makes enterprises fall into bankruptcy. In order to help enterprises deal with financial risk, experts and scholars put forward the method of using relevant financial data to construct financial risk early warning model to early warning financial risk. The fundamental theoretical basis is that the emergence of enterprise financial risk is not achieved overnight, it is a gradual process caused by a variety of factors, so if these factors can be found and controlled in advance, Then it is possible to minimize the likelihood of financial risk. On the basis of this theory, this paper adds the enterprise asset quality index system, which is not adopted by most scholars, which is closely related to the enterprise financial risk, to the construction of the financial risk early warning model, in order to explore whether the addition of the asset quality index system can improve the accuracy of the early warning model. This paper can be divided into three parts: theoretical analysis, empirical analysis and countermeasures and suggestions. In the part of theoretical analysis, this paper first expounds the definition of financial risk and common financial early warning model, as well as the related definitions of asset quality and asset quality evaluation system, and then explains the relationship between financial risk and asset quality or the mechanism of asset quality affecting financial risk. In the part of empirical analysis, this paper first selects the sample companies and research data, selects the data of 48 listed companies and 96 normal companies which were first listed by ST from 2010 to 2013, and uses significance test and collinear diagnosis in turn to screen the selected indicators layer by layer in order to determine the final indicators used to construct the logical regression model. Finally, the traditional early warning model with only common financial index system and the asset quality model with asset quality index system are constructed by using these determined final indexes respectively. by comparing the results of the two early warning models, it is found that the introduction of asset quality index can improve the accuracy of financial risk early warning model. In the part of countermeasures and suggestions, combined with theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper provides managers with suggestions such as establishing risk awareness and doing a good job of asset management, so as to help enterprises reduce the possibility of financial risk.
【学位授予单位】：南华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F275
[Abstract]:Financial risk is a common risk in the course of enterprise development, its intuitive performance, in short, the enterprise can not repay the debt due, the reasons are related to the profitability of the enterprise, operational capacity, internal control and other factors. The harm of financial risk to enterprises is self-evident, which affects the normal economic activities of enterprises and makes enterprises fall into bankruptcy. In order to help enterprises deal with financial risk, experts and scholars put forward the method of using relevant financial data to construct financial risk early warning model to early warning financial risk. The fundamental theoretical basis is that the emergence of enterprise financial risk is not achieved overnight, it is a gradual process caused by a variety of factors, so if these factors can be found and controlled in advance, Then it is possible to minimize the likelihood of financial risk. On the basis of this theory, this paper adds the enterprise asset quality index system, which is not adopted by most scholars, which is closely related to the enterprise financial risk, to the construction of the financial risk early warning model, in order to explore whether the addition of the asset quality index system can improve the accuracy of the early warning model. This paper can be divided into three parts: theoretical analysis, empirical analysis and countermeasures and suggestions. In the part of theoretical analysis, this paper first expounds the definition of financial risk and common financial early warning model, as well as the related definitions of asset quality and asset quality evaluation system, and then explains the relationship between financial risk and asset quality or the mechanism of asset quality affecting financial risk. In the part of empirical analysis, this paper first selects the sample companies and research data, selects the data of 48 listed companies and 96 normal companies which were first listed by ST from 2010 to 2013, and uses significance test and collinear diagnosis in turn to screen the selected indicators layer by layer in order to determine the final indicators used to construct the logical regression model. Finally, the traditional early warning model with only common financial index system and the asset quality model with asset quality index system are constructed by using these determined final indexes respectively. by comparing the results of the two early warning models, it is found that the introduction of asset quality index can improve the accuracy of financial risk early warning model. In the part of countermeasures and suggestions, combined with theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper provides managers with suggestions such as establishing risk awareness and doing a good job of asset management, so as to help enterprises reduce the possibility of financial risk.
【学位授予单位】：南华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F275
【参考文献】
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