2000-2014年中国互联网发展水平统计测度

发布时间：2018-01-06 00:04

本文关键词：2000-2014年中国互联网发展水平统计测度　出处：《华南理工大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：互联网逐渐成为人类生活中不可缺少的一部分,对其发展特性和规律的研究也成为国内外学者的研究重点。国外对互联网发展水平的统计测度主要集中在与其相关的信息化测度上,国内关于互联网发展水平的研究较多的集中在互联网本身的指标研究。为了更加全面的了解我国的互联网发展水平,本文构建了一个系统的互联网发展水平统计指标体系,量化的研究我国的互联网发展水平。本文基于变量聚类的结果和指标选取的原则,确定指标体系的分类和最终指标的选取。从互联网发展应用环境、互联网设备资源、互联网基础设施和互联网普及情况四个方面出发,建立一套综合评价指标体系。对互联网发展的四个方面进行了基本的统计描述,利用2000-2014年度的相关指标数据,采用主成分分析的方法对我国互联网发展的四个方面及综合发展水平进行了统计测度,并对我国的互联网扩散发展规律、相关影响因素以及互联网发展水平与经济之间的关系进行研究。研究结果表明:1、我国互联网的扩散符合创新扩散的S型曲线,采用Logistic模型和Bass模型进行相关拟合,拟合结果表明我国的互联网普及率将于2027年达到最大的饱和值54%。2、互联网扩散的相关影响因素研究表明,互联网发展应用环境水平、基础设施水平、普及水平都对互联网扩散存在着显著影响。3、采用主成分分析方法对我国2000-2014年互联网发展水平进行了综合测度,研究表明我国的互联网发展水平总体处于一个不断上升的趋势,并呈现一定的阶段性特征。4、使用经典的柯布—道格拉斯生产函数,对我国的互联网发展水平与经济增长之间的关系进行总体和分阶段的研究,Chow分割点检验结果显著地表明2005年是一个年份分割点,且分段研究结果证实了2005年以后我国互联网发展水平对于我国经济增长存在着更加显著的促进作用。
[Abstract]:The Internet has gradually become an indispensable part of human life. The research on its development characteristics and laws has also become the research focus of scholars at home and abroad. The statistical measurement of the level of Internet development abroad is mainly focused on the information measurement related to it. Domestic research on the level of Internet development is focused on the Internet itself indicators. In order to understand the level of Internet development in China more comprehensively. This paper constructs a systematic statistical index system of the level of Internet development, quantificationally studies the level of Internet development in China. This paper is based on the results of variable clustering and the principle of index selection. To determine the classification of the index system and the selection of final indicators. From the development of the Internet application environment, Internet equipment resources, Internet infrastructure and Internet popularization in four aspects. To establish a comprehensive evaluation index system. Four aspects of the development of the Internet have been basic statistical description, using the 2000-2014 relevant indicators data. This paper uses principal component analysis (PCA) to measure the four aspects of China's Internet development and the level of its comprehensive development, and gives a statistical analysis of the law of the development of China's Internet diffusion. The research results show that the diffusion of Internet in China accords with the S curve of innovation diffusion. The Logistic model and the Bass model are used to fit the data. The fitting results show that the Internet penetration rate in China will reach the maximum saturation value of 54.2 in 2027. The research on the influencing factors of Internet diffusion shows that Internet development and application environment level, infrastructure level and popularization level all have significant influence on Internet diffusion. Principal component Analysis (PCA) is used to measure the level of Internet development in China from 2000 to 2014. The research shows that the level of Internet development in China is on the whole in a rising trend. And presents certain stage characteristic. 4, uses the classical Cobb-Douglas production function, carries on the overall and the stage research to our country's Internet development level and the economic growth relations. The results of Chow partition point test show that 2005 is a year segmentation point. The results of sectional study confirm that the level of Internet development in China has a more significant role in promoting China's economic growth since 2005.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F49

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