河北省农村信贷发展对农村经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 12:49

本文选题：农村信贷　切入点：经济增长　出处：《河北经贸大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：河北省是一个农村人口和农村区域都超过百分之六十的农业大省，“三农”问题，即农业、农村和农民问题始终是全省发展的根本问题，而解决这个问题的重要措施就是加大农村信贷投入力度和优化农村信贷结构。然而，农村信贷发展会在多大程度上影响经济的增长，现有文献尚未做深入的实证研究，这正是本文选题的意义所在。本文首先从理论上分析了农村信贷在农村经济发展中所起的作用。接着利用统计数据和问卷调查数据，定量分析了农村信贷对农村经济增长的作用，系统讨论了河北省农村信贷在规模、效率和结构方面存在的问题，以期为河北省农村经济的发展提供理论支持和现实指导。本文研究的主要内容分为五部分，首先对农村信贷的理论基础进行阐释。在理清信贷、信贷资金运动与农村信贷的概念基础上，系统梳理了农村信贷发展的相关理论，从早期的农业信贷补贴理论，到金融自由化时期的农村金融市场理论，再到近期的不完全竞争市场理论，对这些理论的背景、基本假设前提、政策主张以及不足之处一一进行了分析。接下来阐述河北省农村信贷的现状以及农村经济状况。从农村信用社的贷款余额以及信贷结构(乡镇企业贷款与农业贷款)两个方面分析，发现河北省农村信贷一直呈增长态势。对河北省农村信贷与农村经济增长变化的关系进行研究发现，农村生产总值增长的波动总是滞后于农村贷款增长的波动。为了对“农村信贷是否影响经济增长、滞后几期影响、影响程度有多大”等问题做进一步的实证研究，本文从农村信贷发展的规模、效率和结构三个方面对河北省农村信贷进行分析，并利用格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解分析的方法，得出农村信贷发展的规模、效率和结构对农村经济增长具有明显的格兰杰影响。其中农村信贷规模对经济增长的作用最为明显，而信贷效率对经济增长的影响越来越重要，农村信贷结构对经济增长的贡献度是最小的，但是它的微弱的增长趋势也不能小觑。继而，本文通过对河北省新乐市赤支村的问卷调查，分析得出大部分的农户贷款金额较小，贷款期限较短（一般都在5年以内），贷款利率较高（平均值为12.05%），而且大部分的贷款户将贷款用于做生意，利率相对更高。所调查的贷款户家庭年收入绝大部分在3万以上，，年收入在10万以上的占16%，说明信用社选择发放贷款的农户收入比较高，具备还款能力。然后利用列联表分析法，得出接受备择假设的结论，即农户的贷款金额与家庭年收入有关，并分析得出贷款金额为1-5万时，对家庭年收入3-5万的农户影响最大，说明信贷金额对农户的家庭年收入有影响。最后，针对实证分析的结果，提出了进一步提高信贷资金利用效率、优化信贷结构、促进农村信贷发展、以更好地推动农村经济增长的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Hebei Province is a large agricultural province with a rural population and more than 60% rural areas. The "three rural" problems, that is, agriculture, rural areas and farmers, have always been the fundamental problems in the development of the province. However, the extent to which the development of rural credit will affect the economic growth has not been further studied in the literature. This is the significance of this topic. This paper first analyzes the role of rural credit in the development of rural economy in theory, and then makes use of statistical data and questionnaire data to quantitatively analyze the role of rural credit in rural economic growth. This paper systematically discusses the problems existing in the scale, efficiency and structure of rural credit in Hebei Province, in order to provide theoretical support and practical guidance for the development of rural economy in Hebei Province. The main content of this paper is divided into five parts. Firstly, the theoretical basis of rural credit is explained. On the basis of clarifying the concepts of credit, credit fund movement and rural credit, this paper systematically combs the relevant theories of rural credit development. From the early agricultural credit subsidy theory to the rural financial market theory in the period of financial liberalization, to the recent incomplete competitive market theory, the background of these theories, the basic hypothetical premise, The policy proposals and shortcomings are analyzed one by one. Next, it expounds the present situation of rural credit in Hebei Province and the rural economic situation. It analyzes the loan balance and the credit structure of rural credit cooperatives (township enterprises loans and agricultural loans). The research on the relationship between rural credit and rural economic growth in Hebei Province shows that the fluctuation of rural gross domestic product always lags behind the fluctuation of rural loan growth. In order to make a further empirical study on whether rural credit affects economic growth, lag several periods of influence, and how big the impact is, this paper starts with the scale of rural credit development. The efficiency and structure of rural credit in Hebei Province are analyzed, and the scale of rural credit development is obtained by Granger causality test, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis. Efficiency and structure have obvious Granger influence on rural economic growth, among which the scale of rural credit has the most obvious effect on economic growth, and the impact of credit efficiency on economic growth is more and more important. The contribution of rural credit structure to economic growth is the least, but its weak growth trend can not be underestimated. Then, based on the questionnaire survey of Chizhi Village in Xinle City, Hebei Province, it is concluded that most of the farmers' loan amount is relatively small. The term of the loan is shorter (usually less than five years, the interest rate is higher (the average is 12.05), and most of the lenders use their loans to do business, the interest rate is relatively high. The majority of the households in the survey earn more than 30,000 per year. The annual income of 16 households whose annual income is more than 100,000 shows that the farmers selected by the credit cooperatives to issue loans have a higher income and have the ability to repay. Then, by using the column table analysis method, the conclusion of accepting the alternative hypothesis is drawn. That is, the amount of credit is related to the annual income of the household, and the analysis shows that the amount of credit has the greatest impact on the annual income of the household when the amount of the loan is 10 to 50, 000, indicating that the amount of credit has an impact on the annual income of the household. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to further improve the efficiency of using credit funds, optimize the credit structure, and promote the development of rural credit so as to better promote the rural economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F832.43;F327

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