基于内在价值理念的股票投资研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 15:21

本文选题：公司的成长性　切入点：内在价值　出处：《广东工业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着价值投资学派在投资领域取得的巨大成功,股票的内在价值成为了投资者研究的热门课题.到目前为止,研究股票内在价值的方法主要可以分为两类：绝对估值法和相对估值法.比较典型的绝对估值法有：股利贴现模型和自由现金流模型；比较典型的相对估值法有：市盈率模型和市净率模型. 本文从经典的自由现金流模型中分析出了影响股票内在价值的关键因素就是公司的成长性,并着重从两个方面来分析一个公司是否具有良好的成长性,即公司的综合发展状况以及企业所创造的经济效益.并认为要想取得长期投资的成功,一个关键要素就是选择具有成长性的公司. 对于具有成长性的公司,我们运用市盈率估值的方法,定义股票合理估值的概念,并用它来反映股票的内在价值.在用市盈率的方法估算股票的内在价值时,我们主要从两个方面来定义股票的合理市盈率标准：一是公司所在行业的整体市盈率的平均水平,另一个是国外成熟股市的整体市盈率的平均水平.投资者可以根据自己的风险偏好选择具体的市盈率标准. 由于公司的成长性是不断变化的,我们所确定的股票的合理市盈率的标准是一个随机变量,从而,我们据此定义的股票内在价值的合理估值也是一个随机变量.因此,我们在以内在价值的投资理念为基础制定股票投资策略的时候,必须实时追踪公司成长性的动态变化并利用市场波动.在此基础上,我们提出了长期投资中的稳健赢利策略：以股票的合理估值为基准,当股价低于合理估值时逐次地逢低买入股票并持有之,当股价高于合理估值后逐次地逢高卖出股票.在长期投资期间,利用市场波动,循环使用此策略有利于投资者避免市场风险,降低投资成本,稳健提高收益.另外,如果公司的成长性出现衰退,就应该逐步地卖出股票,减少持股数量,甚至果断地清仓,以减少损失.
[Abstract]:With the great success of the value investment school in the field of investment, the intrinsic value of stocks has become a hot topic for investors. The methods to study the intrinsic value of stocks can be divided into two categories: absolute valuation and relative valuation. The typical absolute valuation methods are: dividend discount model and free cash flow model; Typical relative valuation methods are: price-to-earnings ratio model and price-to-book ratio model. From the classical free cash flow model, this paper analyzes that the key factor affecting the intrinsic value of stock is the growth of the company, and analyzes whether a company has good growth from two aspects. That is, the comprehensive development of the company and the economic benefits created by the enterprise, and think that to achieve long-term investment success, one of the key elements is to choose a growth company. For companies with growth, we define the concept of reasonable valuation of stock by using the method of price-earnings ratio, and use it to reflect the intrinsic value of stock. We mainly define the standard of reasonable price-earnings ratio of stocks from two aspects: first, the average level of the overall price-earnings ratio of the industry in which the company is located. The other is the average price / earnings ratio of mature foreign stock markets. Investors can choose specific price-earnings ratios based on their own risk appetite. Because the growth of the company is constantly changing, the standard of reasonable price-earnings ratio we determine for the stock is a random variable, so the reasonable valuation of the intrinsic value of the stock that we define accordingly is also a random variable. When we develop a stock investment strategy based on an investment concept of intrinsic value, we must track the dynamic changes in the growth of the company in real time and take advantage of market volatility. We put forward a stable profit strategy in long-term investment: based on the reasonable valuation of the stock, when the stock price is lower than the reasonable valuation, we buy the stock one after another and hold it at a lower price. When the stock price is higher than the reasonable valuation, the stock is sold one after another. During the long-term investment period, the use of market volatility, recycling this strategy helps investors avoid market risks, reduce investment costs, and steadily improve returns. If the growth of the company declines, it should gradually sell stocks, reduce the number of holdings, or even decisively clear positions to reduce losses.
【学位授予单位】：广东工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F830.91

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