政府住房信息资源开发利用风险研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 11:32

本文选题：政府住房信息资源 + 风险管理　；参考：《山东建筑大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1998年我国实行住房货币化改革以来,住房市场得到了迅速发展,住房市场中高价值信息资源、信息产品及服务已成为辅助消费者、开发商等主体合理消费和开发科学决策的重要依据,市场各方对住房信息及产品服务有着巨大的需求。政府掌握的海量住房信息资源,具有权威、完整、及时等特点,开发利用有着较高的潜在价值,但目前由于受政策、技术、社会经济条件、管理等原因的限制,却被闲置浪费,并没有最大化发挥市场价值。因此,加强对政府住房信息资源开发利用具有重要的现实意义。为了充分发挥政府住房信息资源的价值,同时避免政府住房信息资源开发利用带来的风险,本文从风险管理的角度,对政府住房信息资源开发利用过程中的不确定因素进行了研究,提出了政府住房信息资源开发利用风险控制策略。首先,从国内外对政府信息资源开发利用的理论和实践入手,剖析政府信息资源的定义及政府信息资源开发利用的内涵,界定政府住房信息资源开发利用的涵义,并且对政府住房信息资源开发利用风险分析相关的风险管理理论、贝叶斯网络方法及层次分析法进行了阐述。其次,运用工作分解结构方法(Work Breakdown Structure)分析了政府住房信息资源开发利用中的主要工作活动,梳理了政府住房信息资源开发利用的工作流程,根据工作内容和前后工作逻辑划分为三个工作阶段,找出了各阶段可能存在的影响政府住房信息资源开发利用的风险因素及产生的后果,进而列出政府住房信息资源开发利用风险清单。再次,利用贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Network)技术构建了政府住房信息资源开发利用风险评价模型。通过专家调研确定了风险模型中的风险因素发生概率,采用层次分析法确定风险事项对政府住房信息资源开发利用的影响权重,并计算出风险综合评价值。借助贝叶斯网络推理,计算出政府住房信息资源开发利用风险模型目标节点的发生概率,找出了对开发利用影响较大的风险因素,对风险因素进行了评价分析。最后,构建风险控制体系。根据风险管理的风险控制策略以及政府住房信息资源开发利用风险评价模型的分析结果,提出了风险减轻、转移、接受三种应对忽略来控制政府住房信息资源开发利用风险。
[Abstract]:Since 1998 , the housing market has been developed rapidly , the high - value information resources , information products and services in the housing market have become an important basis for the rational consumption and development of scientific decision - making by consumers and developers .

Firstly , this paper starts with the theory and practice of the development and utilization of government information resources at home and abroad , analyzes the definition of government information resources and the connotation of government information resources development and utilization , defines the meaning of government housing information resources development and utilization , and expounds the risk management theory , Bayesian network method and analytic hierarchy process related to the development and utilization of government housing information resources .

Secondly , using the Work Breakdown Structure to analyze the main work activities in the development and utilization of the government housing information resources , the work flow of the development and utilization of the government housing information resources is analyzed , and the risk factors and the consequences of the development and utilization of the government housing information resources are identified according to the working content and the working logic before and after the work , and then the risk list of the development and utilization of the government housing information resources is listed .

Thirdly , the risk evaluation model of government housing information resources is constructed by Bayesian Network technology . The probability of risk factors in the risk model is determined by expert investigation . The risk factors are determined by using the analytic hierarchy process . The probability of occurrence of the target node of the risk model of the development and utilization of the government housing information resources is calculated .

Finally , the risk control system is constructed . According to the risk control strategy of risk management and the analysis result of the government housing information resources development and utilization risk evaluation model , the risk mitigation , transfer and acceptance are put forward to control the development and utilization of government housing information resources .
【学位授予单位】：山东建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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