基于Copula函数的东江流域3大水库丰枯遭遇分析

发布时间：2018-01-10 21:26

本文关键词：基于Copula函数的东江流域3大水库丰枯遭遇分析　出处：《湖泊科学》2015年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：东江流域在广东省政治、经济和社会中占有重要地位,域内新丰江、枫树坝和白盆珠3大水库的来水量直接影响区域生产生活供水.面对水库群联合调度新要求,本文利用Copula函数构建了3大水库入库流量的二维和三维联合分布,分析其丰枯遭遇概率,主要结论如下:(1)3大水库两两间丰枯同步的概率大于丰枯异步的概率,非汛期丰枯同步的概率大于汛期.其中,白盆珠与新丰江、枫树坝丰枯异步的概率相对较大,这为其与另两个水库丰枯互补提供了可能;(2)三维联合分布显示,3大水库丰枯同步的概率在全年、汛期和非汛期均较大,依次为42.29%、41.74%和51.99%,其中同丰和同枯的概率远大于同平的概率.枫树坝与新丰江对下游具有补偿能力的概率分别为29.81%和23.03%,不具有补偿能力的概率分别为32.75%和22.32%;(3)利用3大水库的联合分布,可获得各水库不同入库流量遭遇的概率以及特定概率下各水库入库流量的可能组合,对3大水库联合优化调度具有重要的理论与实践价值.
[Abstract]:Dongjiang River Basin plays an important role in politics, economy and society in Guangdong Province. The water supply of Fengshuba and Baipenzhu reservoirs directly affects the water supply of production and life in the region and faces the new requirements of joint operation of reservoirs. In this paper, the Copula function is used to construct the 2D and 3D joint distribution of the inflow discharge of the three major reservoirs, and the probability of its bumping and wiping is analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: the probability of synchronization between two reservoirs is greater than that of asynchronous period, and the probability of synchronization in non-flood season is greater than that in flood season. Among them, the probability of synchronization in white basin and Xinfeng River is larger than that in flood season. The probability of Fengshuba is relatively large, which makes it possible for the Fengshuba to complement the other two reservoirs. (2) the three dimensional joint distribution shows that the probability of synchronization in flood season and non-flood season is 42.2941.74% and 51.99% in the whole year, flood season and non-flood season respectively. The probability of Tongfeng and Xinfengjiang is much larger than the probability of leveling. The probability of Maple Dam and Xinfeng River have compensatory ability to downstream is 29.81% and 23.03% respectively. The probability of no compensation ability was 32.75% and 22.32 respectively. 3) by using the joint distribution of the three reservoirs, the probability of different reservoir discharge encounter and the possible combination of each reservoir input discharge under the specific probability can be obtained. It has important theoretical and practical value for joint optimal operation of three major reservoirs.
【作者单位】：中山大学地理科学与规划学院水资源与环境系;北京大学城市人居环境科学与技术实验室;珠江水资源保护科学研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51379223)资助
【分类号】：P333
【正文快照】： 东江是珠江3大支流之一,流域内人口约占广东全省总人口的50%,GDP占全省总量的70%,在全省政治、经济和社会中占有重要地位[1].东江是珠江三角洲东部的主要水源,其中,香港特别行政区80%的淡水引自东江[2].作为基础性和战略性资源,东江水资源的丰枯状况直接影响流域内经济社会发

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