俄罗斯入世对中俄贸易结构的影响

发布时间：2018-01-20 11:57

本文关键词： WTO 中俄贸易结构引力模型　出处：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国和俄罗斯是世界上最大的两个发展中国家，，同时又是毗邻的友好联邦，两国的政治经济交往由来已久。从1991年苏联解体至今，虽然两国贸易一波三折，但总体呈上升趋势。2012年8月22日，俄罗斯正式被纳入世界贸易组织框架，这将为两国的贸易发展带来新的契机。基于此，本文首先分析了中俄双边贸易发展现状，再运用国际贸易标准分类法和HS编码分类法对两国贸易结构进行具体分析，得出结论两国商品贸易结构虽然具有较强互补性，俄罗斯对中国出口以初级产品为主，中国对俄罗斯出口以工业制成品为主。但是俄罗斯对中国出口的能源类产品受世界市场价格波动大，中国对俄罗斯出口的工业制成品具有很强的可替代性。影响两国贸易结构的因素有很多，如自然条件、社会经济条件和制度条件等，而俄罗斯加入WTO后贸易制度的改变也将促进中俄贸易结构的改善。以这些影响因素为基础，本文选取1992年-2012年的数据为样本，以原有贸易引力模型为基础，选择变量两国人均GDP、两国关税税率、FDI和APEC，分别回归中俄双边贸易的模型、初级产品在双边贸易中所占比重模型和工业制成品在双边贸易中所占比重模型，检验这些变量对双边贸易及贸易结构的影响程度，并根据实证结果预测俄罗斯入世后对中俄贸易结构的影响。文章最后根据实证结果提出相应的政策建议：(1)在WTO框架下规范两国贸易制度；(2)发挥要素禀赋优势，重视技术进步，改善贸易结构；(3)改善投资环境，鼓励两国相互投资；(4)重视区域经济合作重要性，鼓励建设中俄自由贸易区；(5)提升中国产品品牌意识，增强中国商品的国际竞争力。
[Abstract]:China and Russia are the two largest developing countries in the world, and they are also adjacent friendly federations. The political and economic exchanges between the two countries have a long history, since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. In August 22nd 2012, Russia was formally incorporated into the framework of the World Trade Organization, which will bring a new opportunity for the development of trade between the two countries. This paper first analyzes the development of bilateral trade between China and Russia, and then uses the Standard Classification of International Trade and HS Code Classification to analyze the trade structure of the two countries. It is concluded that although the commodity trade structure of the two countries is highly complementary, the primary products are the main export of Russia to China. China's exports to Russia are dominated by manufactured goods, but Russian energy exports to China are highly volatile in the world market, and Chinese manufactured goods to Russia are highly substitutable. There are many factors that affect the trade structure of the two countries, such as natural conditions, social and economic conditions and institutional conditions. The change of trade system after Russia's entry into WTO will also promote the improvement of Sino-Russian trade structure. Based on these factors, this paper selects the data from 1992 to 2012 as the sample. Based on the original trade gravity model, this paper chooses the variables of GDPper capita, tariff rate of two countries FDI and APECrespectively to return to the model of bilateral trade between China and Russia. The primary products in bilateral trade model and manufactured goods in bilateral trade model to test the impact of these variables on bilateral trade and trade structure. According to the empirical results, the impact of Russia's WTO entry on the trade structure of China and Russia is predicted. Finally, according to the empirical results, the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations: 1) standardizing the trade system of the two countries under the framework of WTO; (2) give full play to the advantages of factor endowment, attach importance to technological progress and improve the trade structure; Improve the investment environment and encourage mutual investment between the two countries; (4) attach importance to the importance of regional economic cooperation and encourage the establishment of a Sino-Russian free trade zone; To enhance the brand awareness of Chinese products and enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese goods.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.7;F755.12

【参考文献】