基于综合承载力的北京市适度人口研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 02:23

本文选题：综合承载力 + 适度人口　；参考：《地球信息科学学报》2017年11期

【摘要】：北京作为中国的政治、经济和文化中心,资源短缺、交通拥堵和生态环境恶化等问题日益严重,确定其适度人口规模,对引导区域人口合理流动和环境保护具有一定的现实意义。本文基于综合承载力,对已有的适度人口模型进行了改进:利用主成分分析法和熵权法确定生态、经济和资源承载系统的权重;经济承载人口测算指标不局限于地区生产总值(GDP)这一单一指标;资源承载人口综合考虑了土地资源和水资源承载力。本文通过综合分析2004-2014年北京各项承载人口和适度人口,结果表明:(1)生态承载人口规模在波动中有增长的趋势,由717.38万人上升至753.14万人,一直处于人口超载状态;(2)经济承载人口一直处于富余状态,但规模由5297.18万人减少至3802.06万人。第三产业产值所承载的人口对经济承载人口的贡献最大,在2014年达到65.15%;(3)资源承载人口规模处于波动状态,2014年为139.61万人,超载率逐年增加。土地资源承载力对资源承载人口的贡献大于水资源,2014年贡献率达79.91%;(4)北京市适度人口规模从2004年的2031.15万人减少至2014年的1550.67万人,2008年开始出现人口赤字,且人口超载率逐年攀升。经济承载人口对适度人口贡献率维持在80%以上,生态和资源承载人口的贡献率平均值分别为14%和3%。人口资源压力指数在波动中有上升的趋势,从2004年的9.45上升至2014年的15.41,资源约束已经成为阻碍城市发展的主要因素,经济承载力是维持适度人口规模缓慢减小的主要动力。
[Abstract]:As the political, economic and cultural center of China, Beijing is facing increasingly serious problems such as shortage of resources, traffic congestion and deterioration of the ecological environment. It is of practical significance to guide the rational flow of regional population and environmental protection. Based on the comprehensive bearing capacity, this paper improves the existing moderate population model: using principal component analysis and entropy weight method to determine the weight of ecological, economic and resource bearing system; The index of economic bearing population is not limited to the single index of GDP, and the carrying capacity of land resources and water resources is considered comprehensively. Through the comprehensive analysis of the carrying population and the moderate population in Beijing from 2004 to 2014, the results show that the population size of the ecological bearing population has an increasing trend in fluctuation, from 7.1738 million to 7.5314 million. The economy has always been in surplus, but the size of the population has been reduced from 52.9718 million to 38.0206 million. The third industry's output value has the biggest contribution to the economic carrying population, reaching 65.15% in 2014. The population size of the third industry is fluctuating. In 2014, it is 1.3961 million people, and the overload rate is increasing year by year. The contribution of land resources carrying capacity to the population carrying resources is greater than that of water resources, and the contribution rate in 2014 reached 79.91%. The moderate population size of Beijing decreased from 20.3115 million in 2004 to 15.5067 million in 2014. The population deficit began to appear in 2008, and the population overload rate increased year by year. The contribution rate of economic carrying population to moderate population is above 80%, and the average contribution rate of ecological and resource bearing population is 14% and 3% respectively. The population resource pressure index increased from 9.45 in 2004 to 15.41 in 2014. The resource constraint has become the main factor hindering urban development, and the economic carrying capacity is the main driving force to maintain the moderate population size decreasing slowly.
【作者单位】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室;西华师范大学国土资源学院;中国环境科学研究院生态环境研究所;中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室;西北大学城市与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(U1503184、41201097) “中国科学院大学生创新实践训练计划”项目(201717001991)
【分类号】：C922

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