基于自组织理论的微博舆论演化研究

发布时间：2019-02-18 18:17

【摘要】：从Web1.0发展到2.0,再到现在的社交媒介,信息传播的方式发生了根本性的转变,从单向的一对多,到网民自己生产内容,再到全民自由发布与相互传播,使得舆论环境也随之发生了很大变化。任意一名网民在微博发布一条信息,都可能在非常短的时间内经过裂变式传播,形成公众舆论,一些具有负面效应的舆论常常对社会造成难以挽回的损失,例如2008年郭美美事件,对整个红十字会与社会信任都带来了严重打击。基于这样的背景,对舆论的运动规律进行研究就显得十分关键,抓住了舆论的运动规律,才能利用它的规律寻找出有效的引导方法。然而,舆论研究从上世纪九十年代到现在,一直停留在传统的线性研究层面,这和舆论运动本身是不相符合的,因为舆论的产生是由许多网民的言论组成,而网民是具有思想的智能的个体,受各种政治经济文化甚至心理因素的影响,是一个复杂系统,用简单系统的线性方法去研究,就像是方枘圆凿,有失偏颇。因此,本文运用非线性自组织理论系统研究舆论的运动规律,提出更接近于舆论演化本质的引导方法,给相关舆论监管部门提供参考。本文的主要部分是第三章到第五章,第三章和第四章从开放性和远离平衡态考察微博舆论系统,论证是否满足耗散结构的形成条件,对子系统之间的非线性相互作用,以及系统随机性动力—涨落,揭示出微博舆论系统的内部动力机制,然后从循环的三个层次论述舆论系统演化的组成形式。第五章根据舆论系统的运动规律,针对性提出舆论引导的新思路,然后结合实际案例以论证引导思路的正确性。本文涉及的许多理论来自于自然科学,在人文学科的应用微乎其微,是一次跨学科的新尝试,对舆论的研究有着创新性意义。
[Abstract]:From the development of Web1.0 to 2.0 and now to social media, the mode of information dissemination has undergone a fundamental change, from one-way one-to-many, to the production of content by netizens themselves, to the free distribution and mutual communication of the whole people. The public opinion environment has also changed a lot. Any netizen who publishes a message from Weibo may spread it through fission in a very short period of time and form public opinion. Some public opinion with negative effects often causes irreparable losses to society. For example, the 2008 Guo Meimei incident, the entire Red Cross and social trust has brought a serious blow. Based on this background, it is very important to study the movement law of public opinion. Only by grasping the movement law of public opinion, can we find out an effective guiding method by using the law of public opinion. However, from the 1990s to the present, the study of public opinion has remained at the level of traditional linear research, which is not in line with the public opinion movement itself, because the generation of public opinion is made up of the remarks of many Internet users. Internet users are intelligent individuals with ideas, affected by various political, economic, cultural and even psychological factors, is a complex system, using a simple system of linear methods to study, just like square peg round chisel, biased. Therefore, this paper uses the nonlinear self-organization theory to study the law of public opinion movement, and puts forward a guiding method which is closer to the essence of the evolution of public opinion, and provides a reference for the supervision department of public opinion. The main parts of this paper are chapters 3 to 5. The third and fourth chapters examine Weibo's public opinion system from an open and far away from equilibrium state, and prove whether the formation condition of dissipative structure is satisfied and the nonlinear interaction between subsystems is proved. The internal dynamic mechanism of Weibo's public opinion system is revealed, and then the composition of the evolution of the public opinion system is discussed from three levels of circulation. In chapter five, according to the movement law of public opinion system, a new idea of public opinion guidance is put forward, and then the correctness of guiding thought is proved by actual cases. Many of the theories involved in this paper come from natural science, and their application in humanities is very small, which is a new interdisciplinary attempt and has innovative significance to the research of public opinion.
【学位授予单位】：四川省社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：G206

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