国际原油价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响

发布时间：2017-12-31 22:21

本文关键词：国际原油价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国的现代化需要大量的石油资源,这是经历工业化国家所必须面对并解决的一个问题。而中国作为世界第二大经济体和第二大原油消费国,对石油的需求与日俱增,国际原油价格从2008年每桶140美元一路回落,跌至2009年每桶40美元,2013年1月在95美元附近震荡,原油价格的大幅波动,使得想要进行结构转型的中国面临很多挑战,对中国的经济运行和增长也造成了很大的困扰, 本文拟通过对石油价格波动对经济传导机制的理论分析,再结合中国石油定价机制及存在的种种不足,基于2005年1月至2013年1月中国宏观经济月度指标,通过计量经济学方法中的SVAR模型进行实证分析,主要运用格兰杰因果检验、自向量回归模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法。结果显示：国际原油价格波动,由于成本效应,对工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)和企业商品价格指数(CGPI)的冲击比较明显,由于能源消费以煤炭为主以及价格传导机制不完善,对国内宏观经济指标PMI影响有限,对通胀指标CPI冲击的显著性较小,而在原油冲击初期,中央银行为避免发生通货膨胀更倾向于采用紧缩的货币政策。在政治环境复杂和流动性过剩的今天,国际原油显现出更多的政治和金融属性,中国通过技术进步降低原油消耗,降低原油的对外依存度,提高能源利用率,通过建立原油期货市场取得国际原油市场定价的话语权是当务之急。
[Abstract]:China's modernization requires a large amount of oil resources, a problem that must be faced and solved by industrialized countries. China is the world's second largest economy and the second largest consumer of crude oil. With the increasing demand for oil, international crude oil prices dropped from $140 per barrel on 2008 to $40 per barrel on 2009 and fluctuated around $95 on January 2013. The large fluctuations in crude oil prices have made China, which wants to undergo structural transformation, face many challenges, which has also caused great difficulties to China's economic operation and growth. Through the theoretical analysis of the transmission mechanism of oil price fluctuation to the economy, this paper combines the pricing mechanism of Chinese petroleum and its shortcomings. Based on the monthly macroeconomic indicators of China from January 2005 to January 2013, the empirical analysis is carried out through the SVAR model in econometrics, and the Granger causality test is mainly used. The results show that the international crude oil price fluctuates due to cost effect. The impact of PPI and CGPI on the ex-factory price index of industrial products is obvious, because the energy consumption is mainly coal and the price conduction mechanism is not perfect. The impact on domestic macroeconomic index PMI is limited, and the impact on inflation index CPI is relatively small, but in the initial stage of crude oil shock. Central banks are more inclined to adopt tight monetary policy in order to avoid inflation. In today's complicated political environment and excess liquidity, international crude oil shows more political and financial attributes. Through technological progress, China reduces crude oil consumption, reduces crude oil dependence and improves energy efficiency. It is urgent to establish the crude oil futures market to obtain the right to price the international crude oil market.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F416.22;F764.1;F124

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