基于省市级数据的豫鲁全要素生产率测算与比较

发布时间：2018-01-02 09:30

本文关键词：基于省市级数据的豫鲁全要素生产率测算与比较　出处：《河南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：增长一直是经济学关注的核心领域，全要素生产率作为衡量地区经济增长质量的重要指标，自二战以后逐渐成为研究的焦点。在改革开放的大潮中，山东省和河南省的经济增长都很迅速，但它们的增长模式能否持续是一个值得考虑的问题。同时，两省各地市的经济增长也具有不同的特征，究竟哪些因素推动了地区经济增长，又有哪些因素是增长的制约因素，这是本文所关注的主要问题。在简要回顾经济增长理论和全要素生产率相关研究的基础上，以卢卡斯模型为基准加以扩展形成本文的分析框架，以检验人力资本的溢出效应以及政府支出、城市化、对外贸易等因素对地区经济增长的影响。基于两省统计资料，从省级数据和地市级数据出发，对各地区的产出和投入要素进行了比较精确的估算。在此基础上，分别采用基于省级数据的索洛残差法和地市级数据的超越对数随机前沿模型对各地区的全要素生产率进行测算，利用回归分析的结果对不同因素对全要素生产率增长的贡献进行分析，并将各地市的全要素生产率进一步分解为技术进步、技术效率变化和规模效率变化。本文实证研究结果表明：两省的经济增长具有较强的相似性。改革开放以来，两省的年均经济增速都高于全国水平，且波动趋势大体相同。投资在经济增长中起到了最为重要的作用，劳动数量的相对贡献呈下降趋势，而劳动质量提高的贡献先升后降，全要素生产率的贡献依然偏低。具体而言，1978-2011年间，山东省和河南省的经济增长中平均有60%以上由资本的增加拉动，且这一比重呈逐年上升趋势，这表明两省都处于资本加速积累的时期。劳动数量增加的贡献在10%左右，而劳动质量提高的直接贡献约为6%。人力资本存在正的溢出效应，但它对经济增长的贡献呈下降趋势。扣除人力资本的直接贡献后，两省的全要素生产率年均增长率都在3%左右。两省对比来看，山东省的经济增长质量高于河南省。从经济增长速度来看，山东省的增速更快，，趋势更加平稳，河南省则更易受到经济波动的影响。从资本积累速度来看，山东省的资本增长率比较均衡，各年的标准差为2.86，三个时期的年均资本增长率分别为11.7%、13.7%和15.8%；河南省则波动幅度较大，标准差为4.39，三个时期的年均资本增长率分别为9.4%、11.7%和16.8%。从综合生产效率来看，2000-2011年的地市数据分析表明，山东省的规模效率和技术效率均高于河南省，虽然同样呈下降趋势，但河南省的下降速度更为明显。因此，河南省的要素产出效率远低于山东省，且差距还在拉大。以资本为例，虽然2000-2011年两省的资本增长率均在20%左右，但它只拉动了河南省产出增长的6.27%，而对山东省的贡献则高达9.04%。从全要素生产率增长的影响因素来看，政府财政支出和金融机构贷款余额占GDP的比重与全要素生产率的增长呈负相关关系，尤以政府支出的负效应最为显著。从地市级数据的无效率方程回归结果来看，城市化水平、出口和人力资本溢出效应均对全要素生产率的增长有一定的促进作用，而第二产业和第三产业占GDP比重的提高对全要素生产率增长的作用并不明显。等级公路密度的对数和公有制就业比重的显著性虽然较高，但其系数与预期相反，公路密度的系数为正表明基础设施不存在正外部性，而公有制就业的系数为负则很可能是它与政府支出比重存在共线性引起的。地市级全要素生产率的分解则表明，技术进步是全要素生产率增长的根本动力，而技术效率和规模效率的下降则是全要素生产率增长的主要制约因素。经济相对落后的地区往往拥有更快的技术进步速度，从这个意义上讲，区域间的技术溢出是推动地区经济趋同的根本推动力。样本期内各地区的技术效率和规模效率均呈下降的趋势，其中经济发达地区的效率水平较高且下降幅度较小，而相对落后地市的下降速度更为明显，技术效率的下降与这些地区政府财政支出比重的大幅度上升有直接关联。
[Abstract]:Growth is always the core areas of economics, total factor productivity as an important indicator of the quality of economic growth in the region, since World War II has gradually become the focus of research. In the tide of reform and opening up, Shandong province and Henan Province, the economic growth is very fast, but the sustainability of their growth model is a question worth considering at the same time, around the city of two province economic growth also has different characteristics, what factors promote the regional economic growth, and what factors are restricting factors of growth, which is the main concern in this paper.
Based on a brief review of total factor productivity and the related research on the theory of economic growth, the analysis framework by Lucas model as a benchmark to extend the spillover effect of human capital, to test and government spending, city, foreign trade and other factors impact on the regional economic growth. Two, based on the statistical data, starting from the provincial data and the data of input and output factors of each region were estimated accurately. On this basis, using the provincial data based on Translog Solow residual method and the data with the frontier model to estimate the total factor productivity of each region, were analyzed by regression analysis results of different factors on the whole the contribution of TFP growth, and the total factor productivity around the city is further decomposed into technological progress, technical efficiency change and scale efficiency Change.
The results of the empirical study show that:
Have a strong similarity in two provinces in economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, the province's two annual economic growth rate is higher than the national level, and the fluctuation trend is largely the same. Investment in economic growth plays the most important role. The relative contribution of labor quantity decreased, and improve the quality of labor contribution first rose after the fall, the contribution of TFP is still low. Specifically, 1978-2011 years, Shandong province and Henan Province, the economic growth in an average of more than 60% of the capital increase by pulling, and the proportion is rising year by year, which indicates that the two provinces are in the stage of accelerating capital accumulation. The increase in the number of labor contribution in 10% so, while the direct contribution to improve the quality of labor is about existence of positive spillover effects of 6%. of human capital, but it showed a downward trend to economic growth. After deducting the direct contribution of human capital, the two provincial total factor students The average annual growth rate of the yield is about 3%.
Two, by contrast, the quality of economic growth in Shandong province is higher than that of Henan province. Judging from the economic growth rate of Shandong province faster, more stable trend, Henan province is more vulnerable to economic fluctuations. From the rate of capital accumulation, Shandong Province, the growth rate of capital is relatively balanced, the standard deviation is 2.86 the three period, average annual growth rate of capital was 11.7%, 13.7% and 15.8%; Henan province is fluctuating, the standard deviation is 4.39, three times the average annual growth rate of capital was 9.4%, 11.7% and 16.8%. from the comprehensive production efficiency, city 2000-2011 data analysis shows that the scale efficiency and technical efficiency Shandong province is higher than that of Henan Province, although also decreased, but the rate of decline in Henan province is more obvious. Therefore, the Henan province of the output efficiency is much lower than that of Shandong Province, and the gap is widening. In capital cases, though However, the capital growth rate of two provinces in 2000-2011 years was around 20%, but it only promoted the output growth of 6.27% in Henan Province, while the contribution to Shandong province was up to 9.04%..
Influence factors of total factor productivity growth from the point of view, government expenditure and financial institutions loans accounted for the proportion of GDP and TFP growth is negatively correlated, especially the negative effect of government spending is the most significant. The regression results the inefficient data, city level, have a certain role in promoting export and human capital spillover effects on TFP growth, while the second industry and the third industry accounted for the proportion of GDP to improve the total factor productivity growth is not obvious. The road density and the logarithm of male is significant for the proportion of employment although higher, but the coefficient is contrary to expectations, the highway density coefficient the infrastructure does not exist positive externalities is that, while public ownership is negative coefficient of employment is likely to be with the proportion of government expenditure caused by multicollinearity.
The decomposition of TFP indicates that technological progress is the fundamental driving force of the total factor productivity growth, and the decline in technical efficiency and scale efficiency is the main factors restricting the TFP growth. The economy is relatively backward areas tend to have faster in speed, in this sense, technology spillover between regions is the fundamental driving force to promote regional economic convergence. The sample period technical efficiency and scale efficiency were decreased, the economically developed areas and higher efficiency levels decreased slightly, and relatively backward, falling speed is more obvious, the decline of technical efficiency and the government fiscal expenditure proportion of large area increases are directly related.

【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127

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