供给抑制政策下的中国经济

发布时间：2018-01-02 13:30

本文关键词：供给抑制政策下的中国经济　出处：《经济研究》2014年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：我国消费率持续下滑,经济增长严重依赖外需,但另一方面我国社会消费品零售总额却持续高速增长,大量领域有效需求得不到满足。本文构筑了一个多部门动态一般均衡模型,对这些看似矛盾的现象给出一个内部逻辑一致的解释。本文证明,当政府对一些重要经济领域实施供给抑制政策时,这些领域的消费需求会被人为压制,而其它领域的需求增长则无法赶上供给的扩张速度,这会压低消费率,最终驱使经济走上外需推动型的增长道路。基于数理模型,本文研究了1992年以后我国相关数据,发现我国受供给抑制政策影响较深的服务业年均增速较潜在合理水平要低38%。以此衡量我国的供给抑制政策并做出数值模拟,可以解释我国超过60%的储蓄率上升以及许多看似矛盾的现象。
[Abstract]:China's consumption rate continued to decline, economic growth is heavily dependent on external demand, but on the other hand, China's total retail sales of social consumer goods continued rapid growth, large areas of effective demand can not be met. This paper constructs a multi sector dynamic general equilibrium model of these seemingly contradictory phenomena are a consistent interpretation of internal logic. This paper proves that when the government of some important economic areas of the implementation of supply suppression policy, these areas of consumer demand will be artificially suppressed, and other areas of demand growth can not catch up with the pace of expansion of supply, it will depress the rate of consumption, eventually drove the economy on external demand driven growth path. Based on the mathematical model in this paper. On 1992 China's relevant data, found that China's supply by deep inhibition effect of policy services industry average annual growth rate is a reasonable level to low 38%. potential as a measure of our country A supply suppression policy and a numerical simulation can explain the rise of more than 60% of our savings rate and many seemingly paradoxical phenomena.

【作者单位】：对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(项目号71103037) 教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划” 北京高等学校“青年英才计划” 对外经济贸易大学优秀青年学者计划等项目联合资助对外经济贸易大学“211工程”建设项目成果
【分类号】：F124
【正文快照】： 一、引言图1显示?,自改革开放以来,我国的消费率一直处于下降趋势中。国内消费率持续下降驱使我国走上了一条外需推动型的经济增长道路,2008年国际金融危机后,西方国家进口需求萎靡,我国GDP增速也随即大幅下滑,这使得我国经济的可持续发展能力备受质疑。最终消费率净出口占G

【参考文献】