出口与金融的互动关系对我国产业结构提升的影响

发布时间：2018-01-04 18:18

本文关键词：出口与金融的互动关系对我国产业结构提升的影响　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2010年我国出口额大幅压倒德国,成为世界第一。我国出口总额从2002年的3256亿美元增长到2011年的18983亿美元,年复合增长率约20.1%,发展速度可谓十分惊人。虽然我国金融在最近十年也得到了一定的发展,但资本市场仍存在着中小企业融资难、过于依赖银行业、金融产品不够完善等问题。“出口”与“金融”两条腿非协调发展,必然会影响我国经济的发展和产业结构的调整。产业结构固然受到出口和金融的影响,但考虑到出口和金融的不平衡发展,我们猜想如果出口和金融不能实现良性互动,那么出口对产业结构提升的作用将被削弱。本文首先梳理了出口与金融的互动关系对产业结构的影响机制,然后试图通过实证来检验这一观点。本文使用的数据是我国31个省市1997年——2008年的面板数据,运用三个指标来度量产业结构的合理化和高度化,解释变量中使用出口与金融的交互项来表示二者的互动关系,由于产业结构是多种因素共同作用的结果,我们还加入了技术进步、外商直接投资、人力资源等指标作为解释变量。通过固定效应模型回归分析,我们得到了如下主要结论：在我国出口未能和金融实现良性互动,因而削弱了出口对产业结构的提升作用。针对这一结论,我们主要提出了要推进金融市场改革的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In 2010, China's export volume overtook Germany and became the first in the world. The total export volume of our country increased from 325.6 billion US dollars in 2002 to one tillion eight hundred and ninety-eight billion three hundred million US dollars in 2011. The annual compound growth rate is about 20.1, the development rate is very amazing. Although the finance of our country has also got certain development in the last ten years, but the capital market still has the financing difficulty of small and medium-sized enterprises, relying too much on the banking industry. The non-coordinated development of "export" and "finance" will inevitably affect the development of our economy and the adjustment of industrial structure, and the industrial structure will certainly be affected by export and finance. But given the unbalanced development of exports and finance, we suspect that if exports and finance do not interact well, then the role of exports in the promotion of industrial structure will be weakened. This paper first combs the interaction between export and finance on the industrial structure of the impact mechanism. The data used in this paper are panel data from 1997 to 2008 in 31 provinces and cities in China. Three indicators are used to measure the rationalization and elevation of industrial structure, and the interactive terms of export and finance are used to explain the variables, because the industrial structure is the result of the joint action of many factors. We also added technological progress, foreign direct investment, human resources and other indicators as explanatory variables. Through fixed effect model regression analysis. We have obtained the following main conclusions: the export in China has not been able to achieve benign interaction with finance, which weakens the role of export in promoting the industrial structure. We mainly put forward to promote the reform of the financial market policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.62;F832;F124

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