基于组合模型的南疆区域经济发展趋势研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 15:13

本文关键词：基于组合模型的南疆区域经济发展趋势研究　出处：《塔里木大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：由于社会历史的原因和自然地理环境的影响,南疆区域经济发展水平相对落后,社会相对封闭。南疆地区具有一定的特殊性,其区域经济发展的好不好,直接影响国家的稳定与发展。近几年,国家西部大开发,对口援疆政策以及建立喀什经济特区,使南疆经济有了飞速发展。在这种区域经济发展不稳定的情况下,利用科学的方法预测南疆区域经济发展趋势,为其制定经济发展规划提出定量依据和有用信息,指导制定其区域经济发展对策,就显得意义重大。本文开展了对南疆区域经济发展趋势的研究。分析了南疆区域经济发展的现状,目前,经济增长较快,但区域内经济发展不平衡,经济发展相对落后；产业结构不断优化调整,区域内部产业结构却相差较大,对外贸易存在结构性缺陷；生活水平低于新疆和全国平均水平,并且,地区之间、城乡之间收入差距不断扩大；基础公共服务设施进一步完善,社会发展各领域均取得积极进展。但产业结构不合理、区域发展不平衡、生态环境脆弱、基础设施建设滞后、人才严重匮乏、不安全生产严重、社会不稳定等,都严重制约了南疆区域经济发展。根据对南疆区域经济发展现状和制约因素的分析,构建其区域经济发展指标体系,分别用多元线性回归模型、BP神经网路模型和灰色模型预测其区域经济发展趋势,利用诱导有序加权平均组合预测方法,构建组合模型,避免单一模型的局限性,提供科学可靠的预测结果,从人均GDP、经济结构、人民生活、社会发展、资源环境等方面阐述了南疆区域经济发展趋势。提出如下建议：合理产业升级,大力发展优势产业；争取财政投入,完善基础设施；推进新农村建设,缩小城乡差距；营造良好环境培养吸引人才；处理好经济发展与资源环境的关系；有效克服经济发展对安全生产的不利影响。
[Abstract]:Due to the social and historical reasons and the impact of natural geographical environment, the level of regional economic development in southern Xinjiang is relatively backward, and the society is relatively closed. In recent years, the development of the western region, the policy of assisting Xinjiang and the establishment of Kashgar Special Economic Zone. In the case of unstable regional economic development, the scientific method is used to predict the development trend of regional economy in southern Xinjiang. It is of great significance to put forward the quantitative basis and useful information for the formulation of economic development plan and to guide the formulation of regional economic development countermeasures. This paper has carried out a study on the development trend of the regional economy in the southern Xinjiang. It has analyzed the present situation of the regional economic development in the southern Xinjiang. At present, the economic growth is relatively fast, but the economic development in the region is unbalanced and the economic development is relatively backward. The industrial structure is constantly optimized and adjusted, but the internal industrial structure of the region is quite different, and the foreign trade has structural defects. The standard of living is lower than the average level of Xinjiang and the whole country, and the income gap between regions and between urban and rural areas is widening; The basic public service facilities are further improved and all fields of social development have made positive progress. However, the industrial structure is unreasonable, the regional development is unbalanced, the ecological environment is fragile, the infrastructure construction lags behind, and there is a serious shortage of talents. Unsafe production, social instability and other serious constraints on regional economic development in southern Xinjiang. According to the analysis of the current situation and the restrictive factors of the regional economic development in southern Xinjiang, the index system of regional economic development is constructed, and the multivariate linear regression model is used respectively. BP neural network model and grey model predict the trend of regional economic development, using induced ordered weighted average combination prediction method to build a combination model to avoid the limitations of a single model. To provide scientific and reliable prediction results, this paper expounds the economic development trend of southern Xinjiang from the aspects of per capita GDP, economic structure, people's life, social development, resources and environment, and puts forward the following suggestions: reasonable industrial upgrading. Develop advantage industry vigorously; Striving for financial input and perfecting infrastructure; To promote the construction of new rural areas and narrow the gap between urban and rural areas; Create a good environment to train and attract talents; To deal with the relationship between economic development and resources and environment; Effectively overcome the adverse impact of economic development on production safety.
【学位授予单位】：塔里木大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127

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