要素投入与巴西经济增长

发布时间：2018-01-06 08:24

本文关键词：要素投入与巴西经济增长　出处：《南京大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：巴西是拉丁美洲最大的发展中国家,不仅人口最多、国土面积最为辽阔,而且经济实力居拉美之首、世界第六。对于一个如此重要的经济大国,我国国内学术界对它的研究还相当贫乏。本文的研究对象是巴西的经济增长。巴西的经济增长之路并非一帆风顺。从上世纪以来,巴西的经济发展大致经历了三个阶段：第一阶段(1900—1929)为初级产品出口驱动下的巴西经济增长。第二阶段为进口替代工业化驱动下的巴西经济增长(1929—1994)。在这一阶段又可以1975年为节点,细分成两个时期。第一个时期(1929—1975)是巴西经济的高速发展期。在此期间,巴西工业得到了快速发展,并顺利地从低收入国家进入中等收入国家行列。第二时期为1975年至1994年。在这一时期,巴西受到两次石油危机的外部冲击,且前阶段高速增长的经济模式带来的种种弊端显露无疑。在内忧外患的双重夹击之下,巴西经济陷入了“丢失的十年”。第三阶段(1994年至今)为新自由主义改革驱动下的巴西经济增长。在新自由主义改革的推动下,巴西逐渐转变经济增长模式,经济开始复苏,并成为世界第六大经济体。本文使用经济增长理论,从要素投入以及全要素生产率的视角来剖析巴西的经济增长。因此在导论、相关文献综述、巴西经济发展历程的研究之后,本文分别从自然资源要素、劳动力要素、人力资本投资要素、资本要素以及全要素生产率的角度分别研究其与巴西经济增长之间的关系.并发现,作为一个自然资源丰裕的发展中大国,巴西经济带有明显的自然资源依赖性特征。针对其自然资源依赖性,本文提出了如何避免资源诅咒效应的政策建议。本文继而采用柯布一道格拉斯函数估算了20世纪以来巴西经济增长中资本要素及人力资本要素投入、全要素生产率对GDP增长的贡献度,发现巴西的资本形成快慢、资本效率、全要素生产率增长率与巴西经济增长之间存在显著的相关关系,也就是说巴西增长模式仍然依赖于投资拉动,属于粗放型的经济增长模式。在使用马尔姆·奎斯特指数法对巴西全要素生产率进一步分解后,本文发现巴西TFP的增长来源于技术进步,而非资源配置效率的改善。在前文分析的基础上,本文总结了巴西经济增长的特点,分析了巴西经济大幅震荡的原因在于对外过于依赖国际市场、对内过于依赖自然资源和要素拉动型的经济增长模式,且人力资本的形成和积累尚不足以支持巴西的创新,在制度上巴西政府未能及时选择经济增长模式的转型。这些因素的共同作用,导致巴西20世纪前八十年快速的经济增长未能持续。以“雷亚尔计划”为标志的新自由主义制度变革推动巴西逐渐走出“丢失的十年”,但要维持巴西的可持续性发展,巴西政府一方面需要降低巴西经济对自然资源禀赋的依赖性、进一步稳定国内的宏观经济形势,加强对外部冲击的抵御能力；另一方面要加快人力资本积累,鼓励创新,尽快完成产业结构调整和增长方式的转型。
[Abstract]:Brazil is the largest developing country in Latin America, not only has the largest population, land area is vast, and the economic strength of the first Latin American home, sixth in the world. For such an important economic power, the research on it in our country academic circles is quite poor. The research object of this paper is Brazil's economic growth.
The economic growth of Brazil. The road is not Everything is going smoothly. from the last century, Brazil's economic development has experienced three stages: the first stage (1900 - 1929) for the Brazil economic growth driven by exports of primary products. In the second stage of import substitution industrialization driving the economic growth of Brazil (1929 - 1994) in this. Stages can also be 1975 as the node, subdivided into two periods. The first period (1929 - 1975) is a period of rapid development of Brazil's economy. During this period, Brazil industry has been rapid development, and successfully entered the ranks of middle income countries from low income countries. The second period is from 1975 to 1994. During this period. Brazil is the two oil crisis external shocks, drawbacks and before the stage of rapid growth in economy shows. Under the double whammy of domestic trouble and foreign invasion into the economy, Brazil lost ten The third stage (1994 to date) was driven by the neoliberal reform of Brazil's economic growth. Under the impetus of the new liberalism reform, Brazil gradually changed the mode of economic growth, and the economy began to recover, and became the sixth largest economy in the world.
This paper uses the theory of economic growth, from the perspective of factor inputs and total factor productivity to analyze the economic growth of Brazil. In the introduction, literature review, research the development of Brazil economy, this paper respectively from natural resources, labor, human capital investment factor, capital factor and the angle of total factor productivity to study relationship with the economic growth in Brazil. And that, as a developing country with abundant natural resources, Brazil economy has obvious dependence on natural resources. According to the characteristics of natural resource dependence, this paper puts forward to how to avoid the resource curse effect policy recommendations. Then using Cobb Douglas function elements since twentieth Century capital and human capital in the economic growth of Brazil investment estimated TFP contribution to the growth of GDP, the Brazil The rate of capital formation, capital efficiency, there was a significant correlation between the growth rate of total factor productivity and economic growth in Brazil, that is to say Brazil still rely on investment led growth model, economic growth mode is extensive. In the use of Malm Quist index method of the total factor productivity of Brazil further decomposition, we find that the growth of TFP in Brazil due to technical progress, rather than the efficiency of resource allocation.
On the basis of the above analysis, this paper summarizes the characteristics of Brazil's economic growth, analyses the reason why Brazil economic volatility is too dependent on foreign economic growth mode of the international market, is too dependent on natural resources and elements of the pulling type, and the formation and accumulation of human capital is not sufficient to support Brazil's innovation and transformation in the system the Brazil government failed to choose the mode of economic growth. All of these factors, resulting in Brazil before twentieth Century eighty years of rapid economic growth could not be sustained. The change of new liberalism system based on the "Real plan" is the symbol of the promotion of Brazil gradually out of the "lost ten years", but to maintain the sustainable development of Brazil, Brazil on the one hand, the government needs to reduce its dependence on the natural resources of Brazil's economy, further stabilize the domestic macroeconomic situation, to strengthen the external shock at On the other hand, we should accelerate the accumulation of human capital, encourage innovation, and complete the restructuring of industrial structure and the mode of growth as soon as possible.

【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F177.7

【参考文献】