中国经济增长与收入不平等的非参数实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 08:28

本文关键词：中国经济增长与收入不平等的非参数实证研究　出处：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济增长与收入分配的相互关系一直众多经济学者研究的热门话题。目前,我国的经济在高速的增长,但是居民的收入分配差距却呈现出急剧扩大的趋势,这就影响了社会的稳定与我国经济的发展。本文将理论与实证相结合,研究我国经济增长与收入分配之间的关系,具有理论与现实的意义。首先,本文对国外、国内经济学者关于经济增长与收入分配关系的研究进行了梳理。他们大多采用存在局限性的传统的计量模型证明出库兹涅茨倒U型曲线没有拐点或者仅具有一个拐点,然而对于正处于从农业经济向工业经济、并同时有重点有选择地发展知识经济和信息经济的经济结构大转变的特殊过程中的我国而言,收入分配不平等曲线可能有两个甚至多个拐点。在实证研究部分,本文主要利用非参数计量分析中的局部多项式估计方法预测2008、2009年基尼系数、测度库兹涅茨“倒U”型曲线的短期和长期变动趋势和三次样条估计的方法来研究我国经济增长与收入分配不平等的短期变动趋势。为研究库兹涅茨“倒U”型曲线提供新的分析思路和方法。实证结果表明我国收入分配不平等曲线至今存在两个或多个拐点,从局部来看库兹涅茨倒U型曲线并不能解释局部变动趋势。而从长期变动趋势来看,经济增长与收入分配不平等呈现倒U型曲线,中国正处于倒U型曲线的左半部分。两种方法都证明从2009年开始随着我国经济快速的增长,收入分配不平等又开始加速上升。
[Abstract]:The relationship between economic growth and income distribution has been a hot topic studied by many economists. At present, China's economy is growing at a high speed, but the income distribution gap of residents is showing a trend of rapid expansion. This will affect the social stability and the economic development of our country. This paper combines theory with demonstration to study the relationship between economic growth and income distribution in China, which has theoretical and practical significance. First of all, this paper is about foreign countries. Domestic economists have studied the relationship between economic growth and income distribution. Most of them use traditional econometric models with limitations to prove that the Kuznets inverted U-shaped curve has no inflection point or only has a. Inflection point. However, China is in the special process of economic structure transformation from agricultural economy to industrial economy, and at the same time, it focuses on the selective development of knowledge economy and information economy. The income distribution inequality curve may have two or more inflection points. In the part of empirical research, this paper mainly uses the local polynomial estimation method in non-parametric econometric analysis to predict the Gini coefficient in 2008 and 2009. Measure the short-and long-term trends of Kuznets "inverted U" curve and the method of cubic spline estimation to study the short-term trends of economic growth and inequality of income distribution in china. In order to study Kuznets "inverted U" The empirical results show that there are two or more inflection points in the inequality curve of income distribution in China. From the local point of view, Kuznets inverted U-shaped curve can not explain the local trend, but from the long-term trend, economic growth and income distribution inequality shows an inverted U-shaped curve. China is in the left half of the inverted U-shaped curve. Both methods prove that income inequality has accelerated since 2009 with China's rapid economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.1;F124.7;F224

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