亚太自由贸易区实现路径研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 22:21

  本文关键词：亚太自由贸易区实现路径研究　出处：《上海社会科学院》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 亚太自由贸易区 跨太平洋伙伴关系协定 区域全面经济伙伴关系协定 全球价值链 生产网络 路径选择

【摘要】：当前多哈回合发展进程缓慢,全球经济治理体系呈现扁平化趋势,各经济体转而寻求建立双边或诸边自由贸易协定,全球双边／区域贸易投资自由化进入高潮,同时,在日益开放的全球化时代,各经济体通过参与跨境生产分工,进入区域生产网络,基于全球价值链的劳动分工成为主流,全球形成了不同的跨境生产网络,而反观亚太地区,整个区域的经济一体化机制差强人意、存在着很大的不足,严重影响了区域内的经济合作与发展。各经济体根据自身需要建立起来的数量庞大的区域自贸协定反而造成了亚太地区的“意大利面碗效应”,越来越多的专家学者、政府机构、国际组织都呼吁在亚太地区建立一个覆盖广泛的自由贸易区——亚太自由贸易区(Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific, FTAAP),以进一步推动亚太地区贸易投资自由化。关于建立FTAAP的问题,最初源于1994年APEC会议上通过的《茂物宣言》中提出的“茂物目标”——“确立了APEC在亚太地区实现贸易与投资自由化的目标,提出发达成员到2010年、发展中成员到2020年实现这一目标的时间表”。接着在1999年的奥克兰会议上,APEC的个别成员提出建立FTAAP的建议,虽得到了美国的支持,但因未得到大多数成员的响应而搁置。其后虽经过大量专家学者和国际组织的积极努力,也没有取得实质性进展。直到2006年,在APEC《河内宣言》中正式将FTAAP作为一个地区经济整合的长期发展目标,并启动了将FTAAP作为远景的可行性研究。2010年APEC《横滨远景》宣称将以实际行动来推动FTAAP的实现,认为应该将FTAAP定位为一个全面的自由贸易协定,同时提出了FTAAP的两种可能实现途径：TPP路径和RCEP路径。2014年APEC会议正式通过了((APEC推动实现亚太自贸区北京路线图》,启动了实现FTAAP相关问题的联合战略研究,开始了对FTAAP进程的全面系统推进。2015年APEC贸易部长会议批准了《实现FTAAP相关问题联合战略研究工作大纲》,决定由中美双方牵头,制定推进联合战略研究的框架。其中的一个重要问题就是FTAAP路径选择问题,尽管2010年／APEC《横滨远景》明确提出了将TPP路径和RCEP路径作为两种可能路径,但最终选择何种路径,选取何种合作模式,将会给包括中国在内的亚太地区各经济体甚至全球经济带来重大影响,值得进一步深入研究。本文是在全球价值链分工背景下,根据当前亚太地区区域经济合作的状况,研究FTAAP的实现路径及带来的影响。本文着重解决六个方面的问题：(一)建立FTAAP的基础有哪些?即分析建立FTAAP的理论基础和经济基础。全球价值链所形成的催化作用对跨境贸易和投资产生了重大而深远的影响。经济全球化已在全球价值链基础上迅速扩展,亚太地区各经济体相互间的贸易和投资以及亚太区域生产网络已经成为全球价值链的重要组成部分。本文在对亚太区域经济合作进行研究综述以及回顾传统区域经济合作理论的基础上,系统分析全球价值链与全球生产网络理论并提出本文的理论分析框架。然后从五个角度分析亚太自由贸易区建立的经济基础：1.亚太地区各经济体宏观经济状况；2.亚太地区经济合作现状；3.亚太地区各经济体贸易的比较优势：4.亚太地区各经济体的贸易互补性与竞争性；5.亚太区域内生产网络的形成过程及成因。从理论和经济基础两个角度综合分析建立FTAAP的可行性,为进一步分析如何建设FTAAP以及FTAAP的建立带来的影响奠定了基础。(二)亚太地区的自由贸易协定发展状况如何?即亚太地区的自由贸易协定的特征,对当前已实施的自由贸易协定以及已完成谈判待实施的或正处于谈判中的协定有哪些,发展状况如何,各区域组织区域内的经济合作状况,自由化状况等问题进行分析。然后,总结亚太地区各类自由贸易协定的共性和差异。(三)如何选择建立FTAAP的路径?本文将详细分析亚太自由贸易区的各种实现路径,主要有亚太机制说、东亚机制说、融合说、内部整合说以及分阶段实现说；同时提出本文所要讨论的亚太自由贸易区可能实现路径：TPP路径和RCEP路径；然后利用本文所要使用的确立亚太自由贸易区实现路径的分析方法,包括生产网络对亚太自由贸易区实现路径的影响分析,基于全球价值链的亚太自由贸易区实现路径分析,以及亚太自由贸易区的经济效应分析,以期展示两条不同路径下建立的FTAAP的不同表现和影响。(四)亚太地区生产网络的发展与FTAAP建设之间的关联性如何?相关研究认为,区域经济合作深度一体化协定的扩散与生产网络的扩张密切相关。本文试图发现亚太生产网络的发展是否会对亚太地区的深度一体化造成影响,借助于生产网络对亚太自由贸易区实现路径影响的实证分析,通过计量回归分析,研究这一影响是否显著。得出结论后,再基于全球价值链背景分析亚太自由贸易区实现路径,即通过分析亚太地区各经济体对于两种路径现存的生产网络的价值链参与度和价值链影响力,以期得出各经济体与不同路径所形成生产网络的相互关系。(五)分别在TPP路径和RCEP路径下建立的FTAAP的经济效应情况有何区别?分不同路径设定不同的自由化程度场景,用GTAP模型来模拟建立亚太自由贸易区产生的影响,得出各经济体在不同路径下建立FTAAP受到的福利影响,从而给未来路径的选择提供参考。(六)中国在FTAAP的建设过程中应发挥什么样的作用?首先要明确亚太自由贸易区建设的努力方向,然后在对全文结论进行总结的基础上,提出中国参与亚太自由贸易区建设的策略。在对亚太自由贸易区研究的理论框架和现状进行分析的基础上,本文对亚太自贸区的实现路径及其经济效应进行了实证研究。全文共分为七章：第一章绪论,包括四节：第一节介绍本文的研究背景；第二节提出研究的问题,分析本文的研究目的和意义；第三节介绍研究思路和研究方法；第四节是对本文的研究内容和框架进行说明,并指出了全文的创新点与存在的不足。第二章分析建立亚太自贸区的理论基础,分为五节,第一节是对亚太区域经济合作的相关研究进行综述,包括三个方面的内容：一体化形式视角、发展趋势视角以及建立亚太自由贸易区的相关研究文献综述；第二节从区域经济合作的理论基础、动因、影响因素和效应等几个方面分析传统区域经济合作理论；第三节是从全球价值链的定义、相关研究和理论框架的形成与发展三个视角分析全球价值链的相关理论；第四节分析全球生产网络的相关研究及区域生产网络；第五节提出本文分析建立亚太自由贸易区的理论框架。第三章分析亚太自由贸易区建立的经济基础,分为五节来研究。第一节说明亚太地区各经济体宏观经济状况,即分析亚太地区在全球经济中的地位和影响；第二节从相互贸易和投资方面分析亚太地区经济合作的状况；第三节分析亚太地区各经济体的比较优势；第四节分析亚太地区各经济体的贸易互补性与竞争性；第五节研究亚太区域内生产网络的形成过程及成因。第四章分析亚太地区的自由贸易协定发展状况,包括四节：第一节分析亚太区域经济合作的格局；第二节介绍亚太地区已达成的自由贸易协定,包括北美自由贸易协定、东盟自由贸易区、围绕东盟的五个”10+1”FTA/EPA以及跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定；第三节分析亚太地区已完成谈判待实施或正处于谈判中的自由贸易协定,包括跨太平洋伙伴关系协定、区域全面经济伙伴关系协定、中日韩自由贸易协定；第四节研究亚太地区各类自由贸易协定的共性和差异。第五章是基于全球价值链的亚太自由贸易区实现路径分析,分成两节。第一节是生产网络对亚太自由贸易区实现路径影响的实证分析；第二节是价值链参与度和影响力视角下的FTAAP实现路径分析。第六章对亚太自由贸易区的经济效应进行模拟,分为三节。第一节是介绍本文所要使用的GTAP模型；第二节是亚太自由贸易区实现路径的场景设计；第三节具体模拟亚太自由贸易区的经济效应。第七章探讨中国参与亚太自由贸易区建设的意义和对策,分为两节。第一节讨论亚太自由贸易区建设的努力方向。第二节总结全文的结论,然后提出中国参与亚太自贸区建设的策略。
[Abstract]:The current Doha round development process is slow, the global economic governance system shows a trend of flat, economies seeking to establish bilateral or plurilateral free trade agreement, bilateral global / regional trade and investment liberalization climax, at the same time, in an increasingly open era of globalization, economies through participation in cross-border production division, into the regional production networks the division of labor based on the global value chain has become the mainstream, the world has formed different cross-border production networks in the Asia Pacific region, the regional economic integration mechanism just passable, there is insufficient, serious impact on economic cooperation and regional economies development. According to the number of their need to set up a large area but the cause of the Asia Pacific Trade Agreement "Pasta Bowl effect", experts and scholars, more and more government agencies, international organizations are calling the The establishment of a wide coverage of the free trade zone, the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific region (Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific, FTAAP), in order to further promote the Asia Pacific Trade and investment liberalization. On the establishment of FTAAP, proposed originally derived from the 1994 meeting of the APEC through the "Bogor declaration > in the" Bogor goals "" the establishment of the APEC trade and investment liberalization goals in the Asia Pacific region, put forward the developed members by 2010, developing members by 2020 to achieve this goal on schedule. "Then the meeting in Oakland on 1999, the individual members of APEC put forward the recommendations of the FTAAP, has been the support of the United States, but did not get in response to the majority of the members of the shelved. Although later after active efforts of a large number of experts and international organizations, has not made substantial progress. Until 2006, in the Hanoi Declaration on APEC< The official FTAAP as a long-term development goals of a regional economic integration, and launched FTAAP as a feasibility study of the.2010 vision APEC< Yokohama vision > claims will take practical action to promote the implementation of FTAAP, that FTAAP should be positioned as a comprehensive free trade agreement, and put forward two possible ways to achieve FTAAP: TPP and RCEP paths in.2014 APEC conference officially adopted (APEC (Asia Pacific Free Trade Zone to promote the realization of the Beijing roadmap ", launched a joint strategic research, implementation issues related to the FTAAP began a comprehensive system to promote the process of the FTAAP.2015 APEC trade ministers meeting approved the implementation of" issues related to FTAAP joint strategy research outline >, decided to take the lead, the two sides is one of the important issues. The framework to promote the development of the joint strategy is the study of the FTAAP routing problem, despite the 2010 / APEC< Yokohama vision > clearly put forward the TPP path and RCEP path as two possible paths, which path but opted to select what kind of mode of cooperation, will give the Asia Pacific economies including China, even the global economy brought great influence, is worthy of further research. This paper is in the background of Global Value Chains Specialization, according to the current situation of regional economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific region, the implementation of FTAAP path and impact. This paper focuses on six aspects: (a) what are the basis for the establishment of FTAAP? FTAAP analysis to establish the theoretical basis and economic basis. The catalytic formation of global value chain which has important and profound influence for cross-border trade and investment. Economic globalization has expanded rapidly in the global value chain, the Asia Pacific economies mutual trade and investment as well as the Asia Pacific Regional Production The network has become an important part of the global value chain. This paper summarizes the research on regional economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific and the basis of the review of the traditional regional economic cooperation theory, system analysis of global value chain and global production network theory and puts forward the theoretical analysis frame. Then analyzes the economic basis of the establishment of free trade area of the Asia Pacific from five angle: 1. Asia Pacific economies macro economic situation; 2. present situation of economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific region; the comparative advantage of 3. Asia Pacific economies trade: trade complementarity and competitiveness of 4. Asia Pacific economies; the process and reason of forming network production 5. in Asia Pacific region. From the analysis of the feasibility of establishing FTAAP theory and the economic basis of two angles, for further analysis of how to build FTAAP and FTAAP the influence brought by the establishment of the foundation. (two) the Asia Pacific Region The development status of the free trade agreement? The Asia Pacific Free Trade Agreement, on the implementation of the free trade agreement and has completed negotiations to be implemented or are in agreement in the negotiations which, the development status, regional organizations in the region economic cooperation situation, problem free status of analysis. Then, summarize the similarities and differences between the various types of free trade agreements in the Asia Pacific region. (three) how to choose the path to establish FTAAP? This paper will detail the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area path, mainly for the Asia Pacific, East Asia integration mechanism, said, and internal integration stages; at the same time put forward this article is to discuss the possible path of the Asia Pacific Free Trade Zone: TPP and RCEP paths; and then use this to establish the analysis path of the free trade area of the Asia Pacific use Method, including path analysis of the influence of production network in the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area, realize the path analysis based on global value chain analysis and the free trade area of the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific economic effect, showing different table to establish two different paths of FTAAP under the influence and in order. (four) how the relationship between development of the Asia Pacific Network of production and construction of FTAAP? Related research thinks, diffusion and production network of regional economic cooperation and the expansion of the depth of integration agreements are closely related. This paper tries to find whether the development of the Asia Pacific production network will be deep integration in the Asia Pacific region affected by an empirical analysis on the path of Internet production effect on the free trade area of the Asia Pacific by regression analysis, the study of this effect is significant. The conclusion, based on the analysis of the Asia Pacific Free Trade Zone in the background of global value chain The realization of the path, namely through the value chain analysis of the economies of the Asia Pacific region for the two existing production path network participation and value chain influence, to get the relationship between economies with different path formed by the production network. (five) the economic effects were established in the TPP path and RCEP path of the FTAAP. What is the difference? Different path set degree of different scenes, to simulate the impact of the establishment of the Asia Pacific Free Trade Zone with the GTAP model, the establishment of welfare economy FTAAP is influenced in different paths, so as to provide a reference for the path choice in the future. (six) Chinese should play what role in the construction process of FTAAP? We must first clear the direction of constructing the free trade area of the Asia Pacific, and then based on the summary of the full text of the conclusions, put forward China in the construction of the free trade area of the Asia Pacific Strategy Slightly. On the base of analyzing the theory frame and the current situation of the study on the free trade area of the Asia Pacific, the Asia Pacific Free Trade Zone to achieve the path and economic effect of the empirical research. The thesis is divided into seven chapters: the first chapter is the introduction, including four sections: the first section introduces the research background; the second section presents the research problem in this paper, analysis the research purpose and significance; research ideas and research methods are introduced in the third part; the fourth section is about the research content and framework, and points out the shortcomings of the innovation and the existence. The second chapter analyzes the theoretical basis of the establishment of the Asia Pacific Free Trade Zone, is divided into five sections. The first section is summarized research on economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific region, including three aspects: integration perspective, development trend and perspective of the establishment of a free trade area of the Asia Pacific research literature review article; The two section from the theoretical foundation of regional economic cooperation, motivation, influencing factors and the effect of several aspects of the analysis of traditional regional economic cooperation theory; the third section is from the definition of the global value chain, the relevant theory of global value chain analysis of related research and theoretical framework of the formation and development of three aspects; the fourth part is the analysis of the global production network the related research and regional production network; the fifth section proposes the analysis framework to build the Asia Pacific Free Trade Zone. The third chapter analyzes the economic basis of the establishment of a free trade area of the Asia Pacific, divided into five sections. The first section is the research that the economies of the Asia Pacific region macroeconomic situation, namely the analysis of status and influence in the Asia Pacific region in the global economy the second section analysis; economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific region from mutual trade and investment; the third section analyzes the comparative advantage of the economies of the Asia Pacific region; Fourth Analysis of the trade complementary and competitive economies in the Asia Pacific region; the process of formation and origin of the fifth section on Asia Pacific regional production networks. The fourth chapter analyzes the development of free trade agreements in Asia Pacific region, including four sections: the first section analyzes the Asia Pacific regional economic cooperation pattern; the second section introduces the Asia Pacific region has reached freedom trade agreements, including the North American Free Trade Agreement, the ASEAN Free Trade Area, around five "10+1" ASEAN FTA/EPA and trans Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement; the third part is the analysis of the Asia Pacific region has completed negotiations to be implemented or are in negotiations on the free trade agreement, including the trans Pacific Partnership Agreement, the regional comprehensive economic partnership the agreement, Japan and South Korea Free Trade Agreement; the similarities and differences of the fourth section on various Asia Pacific Free Trade Agreement. The fifth chapter is based on the ball The value chain of the Asia Pacific Free Trade Zone to achieve the path analysis, divided into two sections. The first section is the empirical analysis of the production network path to realize the effect on the free trade area of the Asia Pacific; the second section is the value chain participation and influence from the perspective of FTAAP path analysis. The sixth chapter simulate the economic effects of the free trade area of the Asia Pacific, divided into three section. The first section is the introduction of this GTAP model to be used; the second section is the implementation of scene design path of the free trade area of the Asia Pacific; section third specific simulation economies of the Asia Pacific Free Trade Zone. The seventh chapter discusses the significance and Countermeasures of Chinese in Asia Pacific Free Trade Area construction, is divided into two sections. The first section discusses the direction the construction of the free trade area of the Asia Pacific. The second section sums up the conclusion of the paper, then put forward the China participation in the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area construction strategy.

【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F114.46
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本文编号：1407039