国际原油定价权缺失对中国经济的影响及对策分析

发布时间：2018-01-12 00:19

本文关键词：国际原油定价权缺失对中国经济的影响及对策分析　出处：《武汉理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国现已成为世界第二大原油消费国和进口国,2012年中国原油消费量达到4.7亿吨,原油进口年增长率超过7%。但一直以来,中国不仅没能享受消费大国应有的“消费者剩余价值”,反而面临原油进口价格高于国际均价,被动接受国际油价变动的尴尬现状。在原油消费对外依赖程度不断走高背景下,由于国际原油定价权的缺失,中国经济受到了严重的损失。因此,对国际原油定价权缺失问题的深入研究对于进一步改革中国原油市场,合理地制定能源战略,保证国民经济稳定、快速、持续增长,具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文采用定性和定量相结合的研究方法,从理论和实证两方面对国际原油定价权及其缺失对中国经济的影响进行了分析。实证结果表明由于缺失国际原油定价权,中国只能被动接受国际原油市场价格的波动,无法对其产生影响。本文进一步构建灰色关联度模型和向量自回归模型,研究国际原油定价权缺失对中国经济产生的重大影响。实证结果表明：国际原油价格与中国经济增长、物价水平、消费及投资之间均存在长期稳定关系,国际原油价格的上涨使得国内物价水平上涨,居民消费及投资水平下降,抑制了经济增长。本文研究认为,中国际原油定价权缺失的主要原因有：国内原油供需缺口大,刚性需求导致原油消费进口依赖程度高；技术限制使得国内原油供需缺口的进一步扩大;国际原油定价体系不能有效反映中国原油的供需状况；国内石油行业制度及较高的原油进口集中度,不利于国内石油企业参加国际原油市场的竞争。综上分析,中国应充分把握造成中国缺失国际原油定价权的各种供求和非供求因素,抓住机遇,创新机制,发展期货市场,加强石油储备,改革原油及成品油国内价格机制,积极发展替代能源,短期内谋求减小缺失原油定价权给中国经济带来的不良影响,中长期谋求稳步提升国际原油定价话语权。
[Abstract]:China is now the world's second-largest consumer and importer of crude oil, with crude oil consumption reaching 470 million tons in 2012, and crude oil imports growing at an annual rate of more than 7. China has not only failed to enjoy the "consumer surplus value" that the big consumer should have, but also faced the problem that the import price of crude oil is higher than the international average price. Passive acceptance of the embarrassing situation of international oil price changes. Under the background of increasing dependence on crude oil consumption, due to the lack of pricing power of international crude oil, China's economy has suffered serious losses. The in-depth study on the lack of pricing power of international crude oil will further reform the Chinese crude oil market, rationally formulate the energy strategy, and ensure the stability, rapid and sustained growth of the national economy. It has important theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, qualitative and quantitative research methods are used. This paper analyzes the influence of international crude oil pricing power and its deficiency on China's economy from both theoretical and empirical aspects. The empirical results show that the lack of international crude oil pricing power is due to the lack of international crude oil pricing power. China can only passively accept the fluctuation of the international crude oil market price, but can not have an impact on it. This paper further constructs the grey correlation model and the vector autoregressive model. The empirical results show that there is a long-term stable relationship between the international crude oil price and China's economic growth, price level, consumption and investment. The rise of the international crude oil price makes the domestic price level rise and the resident consumption and investment level drop, which inhibits the economic growth. In this paper, the main reasons for the lack of pricing power in China and international crude oil are as follows: the domestic crude oil supply and demand gap is large, and the rigid demand leads to a high degree of dependence on crude oil consumption and import; The technical restriction makes the domestic crude oil supply and demand gap expand further; The international crude oil pricing system can not effectively reflect the supply and demand of Chinese crude oil; Domestic petroleum industry system and high concentration of crude oil imports are not conducive to domestic oil enterprises to participate in the international crude oil market competition. China should fully grasp all kinds of supply and demand factors that cause the lack of international crude oil pricing power in China, seize the opportunity, innovate the mechanism, develop the futures market and strengthen the petroleum reserve. To reform the domestic price mechanism of crude oil and refined oil, to actively develop alternative energy sources, to reduce the negative impact on China's economy caused by the lack of pricing power of crude oil in the short term, and to steadily promote the right of international crude oil pricing in the medium and long term.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124;F426.22

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