外债期限、生产结构与价格波动

发布时间：2018-01-11 23:23

本文关键词：外债期限、生产结构与价格波动　出处：《金融研究》2014年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文首先通过构建一个包含家庭、企业、政府和外贸部门的四部门DsGE模型对长期与短期外债冲击影响微观主体行为(主要是企业和外贸部门)和价格波动的途径进行了对比分析,研究结果表明,不同外债冲击作用于生产结构和价格波动的机制存在差异,对于长期外债来说,全要素生产率的提高发挥着重要作用,而对于短期外债来说,进口成本优势则是影响企业生产决策行为的重要因素,相比而言,长期外债的增加更有利于在长期内实现国内中间品对进口中间品的逐步替代,并且对通货膨胀有一定的抑制作用。在理论分析基础上,本文以中国2003年6月至2012年6月的季度数据为样本进行FAVAR检验,贝叶斯估计结果与模型预测基本吻合。
[Abstract]:Firstly, through the construction of a family enterprise, contains, affect the behavior of the four main micro government departments and the foreign trade department of the DsGE model on the long-term and short-term debt shock (mainly is the enterprise and the foreign trade department) approach and price fluctuations are analyzed, the results show that the impact on the production mechanism of different debt structure and price fluctuation there are differences in the long-term debt, total factor productivity plays an important role for short-term debt, the cost of imported advantage is to influence enterprise production decision behavior of the important factors, in contrast, increase long-term debt is more conducive to the realization of the domestic intermediate goods to gradually replace imported intermediate goods in the long term, and have a certain inhibitory effect on inflation. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper China in June 2003 to June 2012 quarter as the sample data for FAV In the AR test, the Bias estimate is basically consistent with the model prediction.

【作者单位】：复旦大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“重构国际金融治理体系——亚洲的视角和中国的选择”(项目号:KRH3246039)的资助
【分类号】：F812.5;F726;F124;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言2003年以来,受人民币升值预期和本外币贷款利差等因素的影响,我国对外债务短期化特征日益显现:截至2012年6月末,我国外债余额达7851.72亿美元,其中短期外债占比74.9%,比2003年第二季度增加39.7%。迅速膨胀的短期外债规模,引发了人们关于债务风险及其对宏观经济影响的

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