吐鲁番绿洲生态-生产-生活承载力演变趋势研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 23:15

本文关键词：吐鲁番绿洲生态-生产-生活承载力演变趋势研究　出处：《新疆大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：绿洲是干旱区人类生存与发展基地。绿洲的发展对绿洲承载力带来压力,并且绿洲承载力是约束绿洲发展和建设的重要因素。而且绿洲承载力是由社会子系统、生态子系统和经济子系统构成的复合大系统,是一个复杂的耗散结构体系。吐鲁番地区是中国西北干旱地区,是西域地区人文风情、自然生态环境和绿洲农业的典型。根据生态、生产、生活系统之间的耦合关系,建立系统动力学模型,预测模拟吐鲁番绿洲“三生”承载力变化趋势,在这基础上探索吐鲁番绿洲最优发展规划。根据总结前人研究成果,以绿洲可持续协调发展背景下,选取84个参数,利用系统动力学软件STELLA建立模型,通过仿真结果与历史数据的对比分析,验证模型可靠性。以属于干旱区的吐鲁番绿洲为研究对象,将其可持续指标体系引入绿洲承载力的评价,以多种参数的调控下,设计四种发展模式,针对不同发展模式下的绿洲生态、生产、生活承载力进行动态仿真与分析。其主要研究结果是:本文对吐鲁番绿洲生态系统、生产系统、生活系统承载力进行了模拟分析、研究结果表明,在当前的发展模式下2030年吐鲁番地区的人口总量将达到78万人,在2010年的基础上增长了16万人,平均每年增长7681人口,城市化率降到37%,GDP与人均GDP分别达到1548亿元、19万元,固定资产投资增长到1096亿元,2010年水资源总量为12.21×108m3、耕地面积为35204ha,但是到了2030年水资源总量降到4.13×108m3,耕地面积降到27667ha。数据可以显示,人口、经济等子系统已达到社会发展目标。但是经济、人口增长推动下,水资源与耕地面积不断下降,灌溉面积不断增长,资源的开发量远远超出补给量。这使水资源承载力与耕地承载力下降。由于水资源、投入和人口对绿洲生态承载力、生产承载力和生活承载力变化成为决定性作用的核心驱动因子,影响生态承载力的水资源因子与耕地因子逐渐下降,说明生态承载力也在下降。经济承载因子在上升的趋势,说明生产承载力在上升。由于人均水资源与人均耕地面积在下降,因此生活承载力也是在下降。通过情景模拟对比,推荐将2010-2030年吐鲁番绿洲农业、工业增长率分别维持在11%、9%左右,乡村人口、城镇人口增长率分别控制在2.5%,1%,把耕地面积增长率4%、减少率控制在2%,灌溉面积增长率控制在2.1%,地表水、地下水开发率分别降低为2.4%、3.8%。在此方案下,城市化率就不断增长,2030年达到50%。到2030年耕地面积达到70074公顷,比在2010年47158公顷增长了22916公顷。到2030年地表水减少到7.3013亿m3,而地下水资源量降到1.59亿m3,这比传统发展模式节约了4亿m3左右的用水量,耕地面积也比传统发展模式的增长了42407公顷左右面积。同时,水资源承载力、经济承载力、耕地承载力也处于相对平衡状态。2001-2030年的水资源承载力指数在0.34-0.35之间、耕地承载力指数在0.52-0.53之间,经济承载力指数从0.47增长到0.95。水资源承载因子与耕地承载因子的相对平衡状态下,生态承载力与生活承载力会逐渐上身,在经济承载因子的逐渐上身的驱使下,生产承载力也会不断增加。因此我们推荐情景模拟四为吐鲁番绿洲可持续发展的最佳模式。
[Abstract]:Oasis is the base of human survival and development in arid areas. To bring pressure on the development of oasis oasis capacity, and oasis capacity is an important factor to constraint the development and construction of oasis and oasis capacity is determined by the social system, composite system composed of ecological subsystem and economic subsystem, is a complex dissipative structure system. The area of Turpan is the arid area of Northwest China, is the western region culture and customs, the typical natural ecological environment and oasis agriculture. According to ecology, production and life system coupling relationship between the established system dynamics model, force change trend forecast simulation of Turpan oasis "Sansheng" bearing, explore Turpan Oasis optimal development planning on this basis according to the results of previous studies, to the sustainable development of the oasis background, 84 parameters are selected, by using system dynamics software STELLA to establish the model, through A comparative analysis of simulation results and historical data, in order to validate the model. It belongs to the arid area of Turpan oasis as the research object, the sustainable index system is introduced to evaluate the bearing capacity of oasis, to regulate a variety of parameters, four kinds of development model design, according to the different development mode of the oasis ecological carrying capacity, production, life dynamic simulation and analysis. The main results are: the Turpan oasis ecosystem, production system, the bearing capacity of life system are analyzed, the results show that the total population in the current development model under the 2030 Turpan area will reach 780 thousand people, an increase of 160 thousand in 2010 based on the average. The annual growth rate of 7681 of the population, the city fell to 37%, GDP and GDP per capita reached 154 billion 800 million yuan, 190 thousand yuan, the growth of investment in fixed assets to 109 billion 600 million yuan, the total amount of water resources in 2010 12.21 * 108m3, cultivated land area of 35204ha, but the total amount of water resources in 2030 dropped to 4.13 * 108m3, arable land area decreased to 27667ha. data can be displayed, population, economy etc. the system has reached the goal of social development. But the economy, driven by population growth, water resources and cultivated land area decreased, irrigation area is growing, development resources far beyond recharge. The carrying capacity of water resources and land bearing capacity decreased. Because the water resources, investment and population carrying capacity of oasis ecology, production capacity and life bearing capacity change has become the core of the decisive role of the driving factors, influence factors of water resources carrying capacity and ecological factors of cultivated land decreased gradually, that is on the decline of ecological carrying capacity. Economic carrying factor in the rising trend, the production capacity is on the rise. The area per capita water resources and cultivated land per capita in decline, so the bearing capacity of life Is on the decline. By comparing the simulation scenario, recommended 2010-2030 years of Turpan oasis agriculture, industrial growth rate remained at 11%, about 9% of the rural population, the urban population growth rate at 2.5%, 1%, the cultivated area growth rate 4%, reduced rate of 2% in the control, the irrigation area growth rate of 2.1% in the control. Surface water, groundwater exploitation rates were reduced to 2.4% 3.8%., under this scheme, the city rate would increase, in 2030 2030 to reach 50%. cultivated area reached 70074 hectares, 47158 hectares in 2010 than in 2030 increased by 22916 hectares. The surface water is reduced to 730 million 130 thousand M3, and the amount of groundwater resources is reduced to 159 million m3, which is more than the traditional development mode saves about 400 million m3 water, arable land area is higher than the traditional development mode of growth of 42407 hectares area. At the same time, the water resources carrying capacity, economic capacity, land carrying capacity is relatively flat The water resources carrying capacity index.2001-2030 equilibrium between 0.34-0.35, land carrying capacity index between 0.52-0.53, the relative balance of power to the 0.95. index of economic carrying water resources from 0.47 growth factors and factors of cultivated land carrying capacity, ecological carrying capacity of the upper part of the body will gradually force and life, driven by economic factors gradually bearing body under the production capacity will continue to increase. So we recommend scenario four is the best mode of Turpan oasis sustainable development.

【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F127;X22

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