政府消费规模对经济增长的阈值效应

发布时间：2018-01-14 10:37

本文关键词：政府消费规模对经济增长的阈值效应　出处：《经济理论与经济管理》2014年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：揭示政府消费规模对经济增长的效应变化是合理调控政府消费规模和有效配置政府公共资源的重要依据。本文利用1978—2011年的数据,运用阈值协整模型对我国政府消费规模与经济增长关系进行了实证研究。本文发现,二者存在阈值协整关系,且政府消费规模对经济增长的效应始终为负,当政府消费占GDP的比重下降至0.178 2(1978—1986年),政府消费规模对经济增长的促进效应较小;当政府消费占GDP比重下降至0.178 2(1987年左右),政府消费规模对经济增长的效应发生非线性转移;随着政府消费规模的进一步降低(1996—2011年),政府消费规模对经济增长的促进效应显著加强。实证结论表明,不断压缩政府消费规模有助于经济效率提升,尤其是将政府消费规模合理控制在临界值0.178 2以下,可以更好地发挥政府消费对经济增长的促进作用。
[Abstract]:To reveal the effect of government consumption scale on economic growth is an important basis for reasonable regulation of government consumption scale and effective allocation of government public resources. This paper uses the data from 1978 to 2011. This paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between government consumption scale and economic growth by using threshold cointegration model. This paper finds that there is a threshold cointegration relationship between them and the effect of government consumption scale on economic growth is always negative. When the proportion of government consumption to GDP decreased to 0.178 2% from 1978 to 1986, the effect of government consumption on economic growth was relatively small. When the proportion of government consumption to GDP drops to 0.178 2 (about 1987), the effect of government consumption on economic growth is transferred non-linear; With the further reduction of the scale of government consumption from 1996 to 2011, the promoting effect of government consumption scale on economic growth has been strengthened significantly. Continuously reducing the scale of government consumption is helpful to the improvement of economic efficiency, especially by controlling the scale of government consumption reasonably below the critical value of 0.178 2, which can play a better role in promoting economic growth.
【作者单位】：中南大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目(11CJY020) 国家自然科学基金面上项目(71373075) 湖南省社会科学基金基地项目(12JDZ19)
【分类号】：F812.45;F124
【正文快照】： 一、引言政府消费是指为满足本国公共需要而形成的对货物和服务的经常性支出。在实践中,由于政府消费大多是以纳税人所缴纳的税收为其融资,人们对政府消费的规模问题较为敏感而又关注。尤其是在市场经济条件下,人们更期望保持合适的政府消费规模来实现经济效率的“帕累托”最

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