分位数回归模型下的广东省经济增长收敛研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 14:04

本文关键词：分位数回归模型下的广东省经济增长收敛研究　出处：《广东商学院》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本研究以广东省区域经济增长收敛为主线，，在回顾已有相关研究文献的基础之上，分析当前广东省区域经济发展的现状，对各个地市和经济带的人均GDP及增长率进行了描述性统计。采用新古典经济增长理论的研究框架，并且引入分位数回归模型，结合广东省区域经济的历史数据对收敛性假说进行了深入的研究，并且与最小二乘回归法得到的结论进行了比较，证明了分位数回归方法的优越性。结果表明广东省经济增长收敛具有较强的阶段性和区域性特征，整体上看收敛趋势不明显。其中，1994-2000年和2007-2011年的广东省区域经济均呈现出绝对收敛趋势，而2001-2006年广东省人均GDP既不满足绝对收敛，也不满足条件收敛，呈现发散趋势。将广东省划分为珠三角和粤东西北两个俱乐部，这两个俱乐部分别在1994-2000年和2001-2006年、2007-2011年中呈现俱乐部收敛趋势，表明各个经济带间的差异才是广东省区域经济差异扩大的主要原因。研究还发现，不同收入水平地区的收敛速度和半衰期也各不相同。而且，从影响经济收敛的要素来看，投资率和技术进步对经济增长速度快地区的影响程度更大；中间收入地区对产业结构变化的反应更加敏感；而对于基础设施，它能够给低收入地区带来比其他地区都更快的经济增长。最后，结合上述研究结果，本文对近年来广东省制定和实施的区域经济政策进行了整理和评价，并且就广东省区域经济协调发展提出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:This study focuses on the convergence of regional economic growth in Guangdong Province . Based on the review of the relevant research literature , the present situation of regional economic development in Guangdong Province is analyzed . The per capita GDP and the growth rate of each city and economic zone are statistically analyzed . The research frame of the new classical economic growth theory is introduced , and the split - digit regression model is introduced , and the convergence hypothesis is deeply studied by combining the historical data of the regional economy in Guangdong Province , and the superiority of the quantile regression method is proved . The results show that the convergence of Guangdong ' s economic growth has a strong phase and regional characteristics , and the convergence trend is not obvious . The GDP per capita in Guangdong Province in 1994 - 2000 and 2007 - 2011 has not met the absolute convergence nor the convergence of the conditioned conditions . The two clubs presented the convergence trend of the club in the period of 1994 - 2000 and 2001 - 2006 , respectively , which shows that the difference between the economic zones is the main reason for the expansion of regional economic disparity in Guangdong Province . The study also found that convergence rates and half - lives of different income levels varied . Moreover , the impact of investment rates and technological advances on the fast - growing region of the economy was greater in terms of factors affecting economic convergence ; the central - income area was more sensitive to changes in industrial structure ; and for infrastructure , it could bring more rapid economic growth to low - income areas . Finally , according to the above research results , this paper has organized and evaluated the regional economic policies formulated and implemented in Guangdong in recent years , and put forward some relevant policy suggestions on the coordinated development of the regional economy in Guangdong Province .

【学位授予单位】：广东商学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F224

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